基于BP神经网络的中国对外农业投资环境评价  

Evaluation of China's Foreign Agricultural Investment Environment Based on BP Neural Network

作　　者：汪晶晶[1] 马惠兰[1] 唐洪松 冉锦成 WANG Jing-jing a;MA Hui-lan a;TANG Hong-song b;RAN Jin-cheng a(a. School of Economics and Trad;b. School of Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2018年第6期85-90,共6页East China Economic Management

基　　金：农业部农业法制建设与政策调研项目(08162130112244001);新疆维吾尔自治区财政林业科技专项(新林科字[2016]14号)

摘　　要：研究中国对外农业投资环境评价有助于提升我国农业"走出去"的安全性和稳定性,对我国农业对外直接投资项目选址决策和风险管控有重要参考价值。文章以政治与法律环境、经济与对外开放环境、基础设施与公共服务环境、农业生产环境4个子系统22个指标为输入向量,以农业投资环境等级评分为输出向量,构建基于BP神经网络的农业投资环境评价模型,对全球138个国家2009-2013年间的农业投资环境进行评估。结果表明:中国对外农业投资环境空间差异明显,总体上呈"欧美大洋洲发达经济圈>亚非发展中国家和新兴经济体"的分布格局;政治与法律环境呈"欧美大洋洲发达国家最好、亚非多数国家较差"的空间差异特征;经济与对外开放环境呈"全球总体环境较好、部分亚非国家较差"的空间分布特征;基础设施与公共服务环境呈"欧美大洋洲发达国家最好、亚洲多数国家较好、非洲多数国家较差"的空间分布特征;农业生产环境呈"澳大利亚和尼日尔最好、非洲多数国家较好、亚欧多数国家较差"的空间差异特征。The study on the evaluation of China＇s foreign agricultural investment environment is helpful to improve the safety and stability of China＇s agricultural ＂going out＂,which is of great reference value to the location selection decision and risk control of agricultural FDI project. Based on the evaluation index system which consists of 4 aspects including the political and legal environment,the economic and opening up environment,the infrastructure and public service environment and the agricultural production environment,this paper,choosing 22 indicators as the input vectors,and taking the agricultural investment environment grading as the output vector,builds the agricultural investment environment evaluation model based on BP neural networks,and evaluates the agricultural investment environment of 138 countries in the world from 2009 to 2013. The results show that： The spatial differences of China＇s foreign agricultural investment environment are obvious,which presents the general distribution pattern of＂the developed economic circle from Europe,the United States and Oceania the developing countries and emerging economies in Asia and Africa＂; The political and legal environment presents the characteristics of spatial differences of＂the developed countries in Europe and the United States are the best,most countries in Asia and Africa perform are worse＂;The economic and opening up environment presents the status of spatial distribution of＂the overall global environment is becoming better,some countries in Asia and Africa perform are worse＂. The infrastructure and public service environment presents the spatial distribution characteristics of ＂the developed countries in Europe and the United States perform is the best,most countries in Asia are better,but most countries in Africa are worse＂. The agricultural production environment also presents the characteristics of spatial differences of ＂Australia and Niger are the best,most countries in Africa are better,and most countries in Asia

关 键 词：BP神经网络 对外农业投资环境 评价 指标体系 中国 

分 类 号：F323.9[经济管理—产业经济]