基于传染病模型的重大突发事件舆情传播与控制  

Public Opinion Dissemination and Control of Serious Emergencies: Based on Epidemic Model

作　　者：种大双 孙绍荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2018年第5期104-109,共6页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"行为管理制度漏洞治理设计的工程化方法研究"(项目编号:71171134);国家自然科学基金项目"制度的工程化设计中的环境接口设计的理论与方法研究"(项目编号:71771151)的成果

摘　　要：[目的/意义]研究重大突发事件舆情传播和衍生社会次生灾害的过程,为政府制定应急方案提供参考依据。[方法/过程]基于传染病模型SEIRS,提出一种合理运用控制因子促使舆情传播发生改变的方法,建立政府干预下的舆情传播与控制系统。给出系统的微分方程组模型,分析系统的平衡点和稳定性。[结果/结论]以"6·1"长江沉船事件和"8·12"天津爆炸案事件为例,通过仿真证明系统的有效性和实用性。设置5种情景来考察不同控制因子对群众状态转化的影响,并据此给出政府控制舆情的重点控制因子。[Purpose/significance] Researching the process of public opinions dissemination and secondary social disasters derivation for serious emergencies can provide references for government to make emergency plans. [Method/process] Based on SEIRS epidemic model,this paper develops a method that can change public opinion dissemination by using control factors reasonably,and constructs a system of public opinions dissemination and control with the intervention of government. The paper presents a differential equations model for the above system,and analyzes the equilibrium points and the stability of the model. [Result/conclusion] The events of ＂6·1＂ Yangtze River Ship Sinking and the ＂8·12＂ Tianjin Explosion are taken as cases in which the validity and practicality of the system is verified through the numerical simulation. The influences of different control factors on the state transition of public are tested through designing five scenarios,based on which,the important control factors are proposed for government to control public opinions.

关 键 词：突发事件 舆情 传染病模型 控制因子 案例研究 仿真 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]