中国网络购物市场交易规模计量分析  

Metrological Analysis of Transaction Size of China's Online Shopping Market

作　　者：王晋波 戴小梅 桑秀丽 Wang Jin-bo;Dai Xiao-mei;Sang Xiu-li(Institute of Quality Development,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,Chin)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学质量发展研究院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《江苏商论》2018年第5期25-27,34,共4页Jiangsu Commercial Forum

摘　　要：文章分析我国居民网络购物市场交易额并对未来做出预测,明确我国网络购物市场交易额的发展态势,为网络有关部门做出决策,具有重要的现实经济意义。选取2006年到2016年我国居民网络购物市场交易额的季度数据建立ARIMA(1,1,1)模型,其中2006年第一季度到第四季度的实际值和预测值相对误差控制在2%,说明拟合效果良好,研究表明采用ARIMA(1,1,1)模型预测我国居民网络购物市场交易额是切实可行的,预测数据来自艾瑞咨询,真实可靠。文末根据模型研究对未来一年四个季度的居民网络购物销售额进行了预测。It is of great practical significance to analyze the development trend of the online shopping market in China and make a forecast for the future. The development trend of the online shopping market in China is very important for the relevant departments of the network. The ARIMA（1,1,1） model was established using the quarterly data of the transaction volume of the resident online shopping market in China from 2006 to 2016. The relative error between the actual value and the forecast value in the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2006 was controlled at 2%.The results show that it is practicable to use ARIMA（1,1,1） model to forecast the transaction volume of China＇s online shopping market. The forecast data are from iresearch, which is credible and reliable. At the end of the paper, the next four quarters of the residents of the network shopping sales were predicted according to the model.

关 键 词：网络购物交易规模 ARIMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：F713.36[经济管理—产业经济]