全球电离层TEC的轮胎调和分析与预报  

Torus Harmonic Analysis and Prediction of Global Ionospheric TEC

作　　者：冯炜[1,2] 张传定 吴星 王凯 FENG Wei;ZHANG Chuanding;WU Xing;WANG Kai(Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China;Beijing Satellite Navigation Center, Beijing 100049, China;Beijing 100049, China;Center for Engineer Beijing 100028, China College of Earth Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences ng Design and Research under the Headquarter of General Equipment,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所,湖北武汉430077 [2]北京卫星导航中心,北京100094 [3]中国科学院大学地球科学学院,北京100049 [4]总装备部工程设计研究总院,北京100028

出　　处：《测绘学报》2018年第5期600-610,共11页Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41504018);大地测量与地球动力学国家重点实验室开放基金(SKLGED2014-3-5-E)~~

摘　　要：将轮胎调和分析引入电离层TEC的模型化过程中,建立了基于轮胎调和分析的电离层TEC球谐系数模型,并对该模型进行详细的验证和分析。结果表明,本文模型计算精度高,系数截断为15阶时,恢复误差全年统计不超过4%,且除南、北极区外球谐模型具有很好的适用性。然后对该模型系数的时间序列特性进行了函数估计:引入逐级余差建模方法,使用趋势函数、功率谱分析、ARMA模型对球谐系数的时间序列进行分析,找出了模型系数时间序列变化的规律,构建了预报模型,实现了基于模型系数的预报,并对预报系数的精度变化问题和系数本身短期预报的数据积累时间进行分析,最终通过TEC的预报,验证了模型的精度。It is established that an Ionospheric TEC spherical harmonic model based on torus harmonic analysis,by applying the torus harmonic analysis method which is ripe in gravity research into modeling Ionospheric TEC.The characteristics of the proposed model parameters are tested and analyzed in detail.The results show that the proposed model fitting accuracy is excellent.When coefficients truncated to 15 th order,the recovery error is less than 4%all the year.The spherical harmonic model has good applicability except the Arctic and the Antarctic area.The characteristics of the proposed spherical harmonic model coefficients is estimated.It is applied that the degree-by-degree residual modeling method,and approaches the regularity of the spherical harmonic coefficients with the use of trend function,power spectrum analysis theory and the ARMA model.The rules of the proposed model coefficient changes are discovered,and then the prediction model is established.Therefore,the prediction based on the model coefficients is achieved.Besides,the accuracy variation problem of prediction coefficients and the data accumulation time of coefficients short-term prediction are analyzed.Finally through the prediction of TEC,the precision of this model is verified.

关 键 词：电离层TEC 轮胎调和分析方法 球谐模型 时间序列 系数预报 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]