堰塞湖风险动态评估模型研究与应用——浙江遂昌县苏村堰塞湖风险评估实践  

Application of dynamic risk assessment model——A Case study of barrier-lake in Sucun of Suichang County,Zhejiang Province

作　　者：张利荣[1] 齐建飞[1] Zhang Lirong , Qi Jianfei(NO.2 Hydropower Force of Armed Police, Nanchang 330096)

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队水电第二总队,南昌330096

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2018年第4期38-43,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：浙江遂昌县苏村山体崩塌形成堰塞湖,应用堰塞湖风险静态评估模型得到的风险评估成果,难以完全满足多任务、多阶段处置需求。通过研究堰塞湖"外因→(堰塞坝?滞库洪水)→损失"的致灾机理,提出了基于堰塞湖可能灾害损失、堰塞坝与滞库洪水双致灾因子、持续时间的堰塞湖风险动态评估模型,将致溃洪水、堰塞坝、灾害损失作为堰塞湖风险评估的主因素,实现了按时间序列对堰塞湖风险度进行全面评估,其评估成果更加符合客观实际,对堰塞湖抢险处置决策更具指导意义。采用堰塞湖风险动态评估模型对苏村堰塞湖进行风险评估,其成果为该堰塞湖抢险处置决策提供了科学依据。A scientific risk assessment is the foundation to decision making for barrier-lake emergency rescue. In Sucun Village,Zhejiang Province,a barrier-lake was formed due to mountain slides,in which case,the assessment results of static risk evaluation model can hardly meet the rescue needs for various tasks and multi stages. Through the study of the barrier-lake disaster loss mechanism of＂ external factor→（landslide dam ？ reservoir flood） →loss ＂process,a dynamic assessment model was proposed in consideration of the possible disaster loss,the dual hazards including landslide dam and reservoir flood,and the time of duration. Whereas,the flood that causes the dam breach,the damming body and the disaster loss are stated as the primary elements of risk assessment. Consequently,a comprehensive assessment of barrier-lake risk is chronologically achieved. The evaluation results are more objective,and more instructive to decision-making of rescue response. This model is applied to the risk assessment of barrier-lake in Sucun Village and provided scientific basis for the decision-making on emergency response.

关 键 词：堰塞湖 风险评估 动态评估模型 浙江遂昌县 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]