考虑资金时间价值的销售商预售策略研究  

Advance Selling Strategies for Retailers Taking into Account the Time-value of Money

作　　者：鄢章华[1] 刘蕾[2,3] Yan Zhanghua;Liu Lei(School of Management, Harbin Commerce University, Harbin 150028;School of Economics, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025;School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学管理学院,哈尔滨150028 [2]哈尔滨师范大学经济学院,哈尔滨150025 [3]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《管理评论》2018年第5期262-272,共11页Management Review

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学基金项目(16JYC10);黑龙江省青年创新人才项目(UNPYSCT-2017200);国家自然科学基金项目(71371061;71602042;71671054);黑龙江省博士后科研项目(LBH-Z15112);哈尔滨商业大学博士后科研项目(2017BSH010)

摘　　要：销售商的预售使顾客的购买行为提前于消费,现有预售模式的相关研究,主要围绕定价策略展开,很少考虑预售(提前)期的量化决策。为制定科学的商品预售策略,在考虑销售商资金时间价值的基础上,结合销售商与顾客间的Stackelberg博弈关系,以预售价格和预售期为决策变量,建立销售商预售策略的优化模型。通过对模型求解结果及现实预售案例的分析,得出结论认为,能实现销售商收入最大化的预售策略可分为超低价格、超长预售期策略和少量价格折扣、较短预售期策略两类,并给出了两种不同预售策略实现销售商收入最大化的条件。最后,通过数值分析展示了两种预售策略间的关系,并对本文的结论进行了验证。Advance selling occurs when sellers allow buyers to purchase at a time preceding consumption. Existing researches on advance selling mainly focus on pricing strategies while the quantification of lead-time is seldom discussed. Considering price and lead-time in advance selling as variables,we establish an optimization model under the framework of Stackelberg game. By comparing results from the model with realistic cases,we find that the optimum advance selling strategies should consist of two categories： super low price with ultra-long lead-time and reasonable price discount with short lead-time. Further analysis on the two strategies identifies the conditions under which the profit is maximized. Finally,we use numeric examples to illustrate the relationship between the two typical strategies and to verify the conclusions drawn in this paper.

关 键 词：预售策略 资金时间价值 顾客偏好 小米 华为 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]