多重耐药鲍曼不动杆菌医院感染发展趋势分析  

Epidemiological analysis on multiple drug resistance-Acinetobacter baumannii incidence in general hospital

作　　者：刘燕[1] 薛凌波[1] 于晓强[1] 姜萍[1] 沈姣姣[1] 王朔[1] 耿淑平[1] LIU Yan;XUE Ling- bo;YU Xiao- qiang;JIANG Ping;SHEN Jiao-jiao;WANG shuo;GENG Shu-ping(The First People＇s Hospital of Nantong, Nantong Jiangsu 226001 ,China)

机构地区：[1]南通市第一人民医院,江苏南通226001

出　　处：《中国消毒学杂志》2018年第5期345-348,共4页Chinese Journal of Disinfection

基　　金：南通市卫计委青年科研基金项目(WQ2016037)

摘　　要：目的研究多重耐药鲍曼不动杆菌(MDR-AB)医院感染发展趋势,为有效防控提供理论依据。方法采用时间序列分析方法,对江苏省某综合医院患者送检标本MDR-AB的检出结果进行分析,建立预测模型和防控措施。结果 MDR-AB月检出率的ARIMA预测模型为▽12xt=μ+0.762 2εt-1+εt;模型预测2016年MDR-AB月检出率的平均相对误差为15.32%,预测值与实际值总体趋势基本一致。结论 MDR-AB检出率存在周期变化和长期增长趋势,适用于ARIMA模型进行预测,可为临床早期采取防控措施提供依据。Objective To study the epidemic trends of multiple drug resistance-Acinetobacter baumannii,and to provide a scientific basis for reducing the MDR-AB infection. Methods Time series analysis was conducted by using the monthly incidence data of MDR-AB patients in a hospital of Jiangsu province,and a predictive model was established after parameter estimation and model evaluation. Results The MDR-AB detection rate for ARIMA model was ▽ 12 xt= μ ＋ 0. 762 2εt-1 ＋εt,and the average of the relative error between actual and predicted values was 15. 32%. But the trend of model prediction and the actual was basically same. Conclusion The ARIMA model can well fit and predict the detection rate of MDR-AB which has periodic change and long-term growth trend,which can provide a reference for early clinical prevention and control measures.

关 键 词：多重耐药菌 鲍曼不动杆菌 时间序列分析 模型预测 

分 类 号：R181.32[医药卫生—流行病学]