医疗保险基金支出的人口学影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Impacts of Demographic Factors on Medical Insurance Fund Expenditure

作　　者：黄阿红 方鹏骞[1] 沈梦雪 陈默 乐虹[1] HUANG A-hong;FANG Peng-qian;SHEN Meng-xue(School of Medicine and Health Management, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430040, Chin)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院,武汉430030

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2018年第6期33-36,共4页Chinese Health Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71333005)

摘　　要：目的:研究影响医疗保险基金支出的人口因素,提出降低医保基金不合理支出的建议。方法:采用灰色关联分析、灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和regress多元线性回归模型等方法进行研究。结果:影响医疗保险基金支出的因素是多样的,其中代表性的人口指标包括参保人数、城镇化率、老年抚养和退休在职比,其中参保人数的影响程度最大。结论:针对人口老龄化趋势加快、重复参保等现象,政府需统一医疗保险经办管理,加强老年长期护理,为延迟退休政策提供立法保障,居民需增强预防保健意识等。Objective： To analyze the impacts of demographic factors on the growth of medical insurance fund expenditure, so as to provide suggestions to reduce the irrational fund expenses effectively. Methods： Grey relation analysis, grey system GM（1,1） forecast model and regress multiple linear regression were all applied to conduct the empirical research. Results： According to the statisti- cal analysis, participants of medical insurance, urbanization rate, the elderly dependency ratio and retirement on-the-job ratio were representatively factors affecting the fund expenditure. The participants of medical insurance had the greatest impact. Conclusion： With the increasing of social aging degree and the repeated participants of medical insurance and so on, the government should unify the medical insurance management, promote the long-term care for the elderly and provide legislative prutection for the policy of delaying retirement. Meanwhile, people needed to enhance their awareness of heahheare prevention.

关 键 词：医疗保险 医保基金支出 人口指标 灰色系统理论 回归分析 

分 类 号：R1-9[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] F840.613[经济管理—保险]