碳交易风险下高耗能企业低碳技术采纳时机决策  

作　　者：蔡小哩[1] 丁志刚 晚春东 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业职业技术学院商贸学院 [2]绍兴文理学院商学院

出　　处：《企业经济》2018年第6期19-24,共6页Enterprise Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"食品供应链质量安全风险演变机理与调控优化模型"(项目编号:71372175);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"不确定风险下供应链低碳技术采纳决策与协调机制研究"(项目编号:16YJC630019);浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目"绿色信贷支持浙江生态经济发展效率提升对策研究"(项目编号:17NDJC136YB);浙江省社科联研究项目"供给侧改革视角下浙江纺织业节能减排绩效评价研究"(项目编号:2017N12)

摘　　要：本文在碳交易政策背景下,从消费者对低碳产品的需求出发,利用实物期权理论探究高耗能企业采纳低碳技术的投资时机问题。通过引入碳价波动率、低碳技术减排效率、消费者低碳偏好程度等参数,构建了面向"碳排放权"与"低碳产品"2个市场的期权模型。研究发现:当碳交易市场价格波动剧烈时,企业会延长等待投资的时间;当采纳的低碳技术减排水平较高时,企业也会推迟投资的时机;当消费者低碳偏好较强时,企业则会缩短等待投资的时间。最后,从完善碳交易机制,将碳价稳定在合理区间、加强对消费者环保宣传和低碳消费引导,以及投入专项资金促进高耗能企业加快采纳低碳技术等方面提出政策建议,以期为高耗能企业提供决策参考,也为政府部门制定相关政策提供有价值的依据。In the context of carbon trading policy, considering the consumer demand for low-carbon products, the real options theory is used to explore investment timing of energy-intensive enterprises adopting low-carbon technology. Facing to both the ＂right of carbon emission＂ and ＂low-carbon product＂ markets, the volatility rate of carbon price, the efficiency of lowcarbon technology and the low-carbon preference degree of consumers are introduced to construct the option model. The results reveal that the more volatile the price of carbon trading market, the longer the enterprise will wait for the investment; the higher the level of carbon emission reduction adopted, the more time the enterprise will postpone the investment; while the stronger the consumer preference for low-carbon product, the shorter the enterprise will wait for the investment. And several aspects of the policy recommendations are given：to complete carbon trading mechanism to stabilize carbon prices in a reasonable range, to strengthen consumer advocacy and low-carbon consumer guidance and investment in special funds to promote energy-intensive enterprises to speed up the adoption of low-carbon technologies, which can not only provide a decision-making reference for energy-intensive enterprises, but also provide a valuable basis for government departments to formulate relevant policies.

关 键 词：碳交易 低碳技术 投资时机 实物期权 高耗能企业 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]