干旱区人口-经济-水资源耦合协调发展及其相关性分析——以乌鲁木齐县为例  

Coordinated Development and Correlation Analysis of Population,Economy and Water Resources in Arid Areas:a Case Study of Urumqi County

作　　者：王新芸 瓦哈甫.哈力克 阿斯古丽.木萨 王亚菲[1,3] 王芳[1,2] WANG Xin-yun;HALIK Wa-hap;MUSA Asi-gul;WANG Ya-fei;WANG Fang(The Key Lab for Oasis Ecosystem of MOE, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;College of Tourism Management, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046 ,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆大学旅游学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2018年第6期101-105,110,共6页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目(41661106);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41271168)

摘　　要：水资源短缺将成为21世纪的重大问题,缺水不仅影响正常的生产与生活,还会影响到人类生存。根据1996-2015年乌鲁木齐县人口、经济和水资源方面的相关数据,构建乌鲁木齐县人口-经济-水资源的评价指标体系,测算出人口、经济、水资源的综合评价指数及其耦合度和耦合协调度指数,并分析其相关性,从而得到乌鲁木齐县20年来的人口-经济-水资源发展趋势、耦合度和耦合协调度的变化趋势以及相关关系。研究结果表明:(1)1996-2015年乌鲁木齐县人口-经济-水资源综合发展水平在总体上呈现波动状态,相比1996年,2015年略有所降低,下降幅度为0.112;(2)1996-2015年,乌鲁木齐县人口-经济-水资源的耦合协调度的变化格局如同字母"W",呈现波动式递减的趋势;(3)综合指数(T)与经济(U2)和水资源(U3)呈现强的正相关(p<0.01),与人口(U1)成正相关,但是不显著(p>0.05)。最后根据研究结果,结合"十九大"有关内容,并根据乌鲁木齐县自身的条件,提出可持续发展的相关建议。The shortage of water resources will become a major issue in the 21 st Century. Water shortage will not only affect normal production and life,but also affect human survival. According to the relevant data of population,economy and water resources from 1996 to2015 of Urumqi County,the population-economy-water resources evaluation index system for Urumqi county is established,the populationeconomy-water resource evaluation index,coupling degree and coupling degree index are calculated. And the correlation analysis is conducted. Then the population-economy-water resources development trend,the trend of the change degree and coupling coordination degree and correlation of Urumqi county in past 20 years are got. The results show that：（1） In general,the comprehensive development level of population-economy-water resources of Urumqi county fluctuated in 1996 to 2015. It decreased slightly in 2015 with a decline range of 0.112 than that in 1996;（2） From1996 to 2015,the pattern of the coupling coordination degree of population-economy-water resources of Urumqi county changed as the letter ＂W＂with a wave-like decreasing trend;（3） The Comprehensive index（ T） shows a strong positive correlation with economy（ U2） and water resources（ U3）,and is positively correlated with population（ U1）,but not significantly. Finally,according to the study results,combined with the relevant contents of＂the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China＂and the conditions of Urumqi County,the relevant suggestions for sustainable development are put forward.

关 键 词：人口 经济 水资源 耦合协调 可持续发展 乌鲁木齐县 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]