基于职居分离调整的北京市交通碳减排潜力研究  

Potential of reducing carbon emission from urban transport based on adjustments to jobs-housing separation in Beijing

作　　者：王慧慧[1] 余龙全 曾维华[1] WANG Hui-hui;YU Long-quan;ZENG Wei-hua(School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [2]中国长江三峡集团公司,北京100038

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第6期41-51,共11页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：科技部改革发展专项"巴黎会议后应对气候变化急迫重大问题研究";国家自然科学基金项目"基于遥感/GIS集成手段的城市化区域土地利用碳排放及其社会经济驱动机制研究:以上海市为例"(批准号:71573045)

摘　　要：城市就业—居住空间关系是城市空间布局的重要依据,而城市职居分离现象势必会进一步加重城市就业地与居住地的布局失衡,导致城市将长期面临交通拥堵、空气污染等一系列问题的困扰。在构建低碳城市及相关政策的制定过程中,追求减少对小汽车依赖,增加城市公共交通的吸引力和改善生活品质,城市职居关系调整是当中不可忽视的问题,甚至是策略。本文通过详细调查北京市人口/经济普查、交通出行调查等基础资料,利用就业—居住比(J/R)和通勤时间/距离为测定指标对北京市职居关系现状进行分析,并采用自下而上方法对城市交通出行碳排放进行核算,考虑交通出行对碳排放的影响设计了两种交通碳减排情景:"基准情景"、"职居关系调整情景"。结果表明:近年北京市职居关系失衡状况有所加剧,六环内多数地区因无法提供足够的居住地而导致职居关系失衡。北京市交通出行碳排放量巨大且增长迅速,年碳排放量从2005年的599.15万t增长到2014年的1 065.49万t,年均增长6.6%,且随着居民通勤出行需求的增加通勤出行碳排放量占交通出行的比例呈不断上升趋势,从2005年的36.85%增长到2014年的50.09%,年均增长3.5%,其中小汽车是北京交通出行碳排放产生的主要来源。相比基准情景,在职居关系调整情景下北京市交通出行年碳排放总量将大量减少,2020年和2030年将分别减少184.42万t、520.42万t,减少幅度分别为15.91%、37.21%,碳减排效果明显。同时若以2014年为起点,基于职居关系调整情景下,2020年的交通出行碳减排潜力为553.26万t,到2030年达到3 524.22万t,碳减排的潜力巨大。The spatial relationship between urban residence and employment is an important basis for the layout of urban space. The phenomenon of jobs-housing segregation will inevitably further aggravate the layout imbalance between the employment and residence,causing the cities to face a series of long-term problems of traffic congestion and air pollution. The adjustment of the relationship between jobs-housing is an inevitable topic and strategy in the process of building a low-carbon city and related policies to reduce car dependence,increasing public transportation’s attractiveness and improving life quality. The relationship of jobs-housing in Beijing was analyzed by the job-housing ratio（ J/R） and commuting time/distance based on the population,economic,traffic survey and other basic information. Carbon emissions from transport of urban residents were calculated by employing bottom-up method. Two types of traffic carbon emission reduction scenarios,namely,business as usual（ BAU） and jobs-housing relationship adjustment scenario,and designed in the consideration of the influence of transport on carbon emissions. The results showed that the relationship of jobs-housing separation in Beijing has intensified in recent years. No sufficient places of residence in most regions of 6 th ring road are responsible for the relationship of jobs-housing separation. Carbon emissions from transport of urban residents are huge and growing rapidly. Carbon emissions increase from 5. 991 5 million t in 2005 to 10. 654 9 million t in 2014,with an annual average rate of approximately 6. 6%.With the increase of resident commuter travel demand,the proportions of commuter travel carbon emissions are rising from 36. 85% in2005 to 50. 09% in 2014,with an annual average rate of about 3. 5%. Car is a major source of carbon emissions. Relative to BAU,the total amount of carbon emissions from transport in Beijing will greatly reduce in the jobs-housing relationship adjustment scenario. The decrease in carbon emissions in 2020 and 2030 w

关 键 词：职居分离 交通碳排放 通勤出行 北京市 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]