基于灾害蔓延理论的拥堵传播建模与仿真  

Modeling and simulation of congestion propagation based on disaster spreading dynamic model

作　　者：肖文锦[1] 张琦[1,2] XIAO Wenjin;ZHANG Qi(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2018年第6期1593-1600,共8页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51478036;U1434207)

摘　　要：基于灾害蔓延理论建立轨道交通网络拥堵传播模型,揭示拥堵传播的规律,为轨道交通运营提供理论支撑。分析灾害蔓延理论在城市轨道交通网络中的适应性,结合灾害蔓延理论深入分析轨道交通网络中拥堵传播特性、传播过程,基于灾害蔓延动力学模型建立轨道交通网络拥堵传播动力学模型,利用列车满载率定义节点属性。仿真分析拥堵发生站的类型、初始拥堵强度、拥堵传播阈值和自我修复能力对轨道交通拥堵传播的范围、强度的影响。研究结果表明:建立的拥堵传播模型能够反映轨道交通网络拥堵传播的过程,仿真过程揭示拥堵在轨道交通网络中的传播规律,为轨道交通网络拥堵控制、运输组织等提供一定的理论依据。The model of congestion propagation in urban rail transit network based on disaster spreading dynamic was established, and the rule of congestion propagation was revealed, providing fundamental basis of rail transit operation. Firstly, the applicability of disaster spreading dynamic in urban rail transit network was described. Secondly, the congestion process and features in urban rail transit network were analyzed. Then, the congestion propagation dynamics model was established based on the disaster spreading dynamic model, and train load factors were defined as node property. The simulation experiment conducted from four aspects, including node type, initial risk value, node risk threshold and self-repairing capability. The research shows that the congestion propagation dynamics model in this paper can reflect the process of the congestion propagation, and reveal propagation rule in urban rail transit network. The conclusion can provide some academic bases and references for congestion control and transportation organization.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通网络 拥堵传播 灾害蔓延 仿真 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程] X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]