我国金融监管系统运行状态评价——基于协同论和GM模型的方法  

The Evaluation of China's Financial Regulation System Based on Synergetic Theory and GM Model

作　　者：刘超[1,2] 郝丹辉 LIU Chao;HAO Dan-huil(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Research Base of Beijing Modern Manufacturing Development,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]北京现代制造业发展基地,北京100124

出　　处：《系统工程》2018年第2期29-38,共10页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61773029;61273230);北京市属高校高水平教师队伍建设支持计划长城学者培养计划项目(CIT&TCD20170304)

摘　　要：金融监管系统具有典型的非线性复杂系统的特征,依据"双峰"理论可划分为宏观审慎、微观审慎和行为监管3个子系统。选择我国2005~2016年的经济数据,分别构建协同度模型和灰色动态关联模型GM(1,n),对金融监管系统的协同发展状况进行实证分析。结果表明:微观审慎和行为监管子系统的运行状态良好,而宏观审慎监管子系统整体处于无序状态;金融监管的协同程度水平较低;分业监管体制下各监管主体的协同监管难以满足混业经营现状下对金融监管的要求,应突出宏观审慎监管在金融监管中的核心地位,微观审慎监管与行为监管要在宏观审慎框架内运行。Financial regulation system has the characteristics of typical nonlinear complex system, and it can be divided into 3 subsystems： macro-prudential regulation, micro-prudential regulation and behavioral regulation according to the ＂twin-peak＂ theory. Selecting annual data from 2005 to 2016, the synergy degree model and the grey dynamic correlation model GM（1 ,n） are constructed to analyze the coordinated development of financial regulation system. The results reveal that the development of micro-prudential regulation and behavioral regulation is relatively good but macro-prudential regulation subsystem presents the disorderly fluctuations of the development state~ synergy degree of China＇ s financial regulation is not high; coordinated regulation of the regulators under the separate regulation is difficult to meet the requirements of current integrated regulation; we should emphasize the core position of macro-prudential regulation, and micro-prudential regulation and behavior regulation should be run in the macro-prudential framework.

关 键 词：金融监管系统 协同论 灰色关联模型 “双峰”监管 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]