中国民用汽车拥有量多层面分析  

Multi-faceted Analysis of China's Civil Car Ownership

作　　者：王英 胡晓华[1] WANG Ying;HU Xiaohua(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Hainan Normal University,Haikou 571158,China)

机构地区：[1]海南师范大学数学与统计学院,海南海口571158

出　　处：《海南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第2期206-210,共5页Journal of Hainan Normal University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11361022)

摘　　要：文章对中国民用汽车拥有量及相关经济变量1985—2015年的年度数据进行了多层面分析.建立单变量Logistic时序模型,对未来民用汽车拥有量进行预测;建立双变量弹性分析模型,研究单个经济变量每变动1%对民用汽车拥有量的影响程度;建立多元线性回归模型,发现人口总数、工业增加值、钢材产量和全国居民消费水平与民用汽车拥有量之间的线性关系.This paper makes a multi faceted analysis of the annual data about Chinese civil car ownership and the related economic variables from 1985 to 2015. The single variable time series Logistic model is established to predict the future civil car ownership, a bivariate elastic analysis model is established to study the impact of 1% individual economic variables on the ownership of civil cars, and a multiple linear regression model is established to find the linear relationship between factors of the total population, the industrial added value, the steel output, the consumption level of the whole nation, and the ownership of civil cars.

关 键 词：民用汽车拥有量 LOGISTIC模型 弹性分析 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]