特大城市居民出行方式选择行为的混合Logit模型  

Mixed Logit model for understanding travel mode choice behavior of megalopolitan residents

作　　者：栾鑫[1] 邓卫[1] 程琳[1] 陈新元 LUAN Xin;DENG Wei;CHENG Lin;CHEN Xin-yuan(School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China;The Institute of Transport Studies,Monash University,Melbourne VIC3168,Australia;Department of Civil Engineering,Monash University,Melbourne VIC3168,Australia)

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,南京211189 [2]蒙纳士大学交通研究所 [3]蒙纳士大学土木工程系

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2018年第4期1029-1036,共8页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51578150;51378119);国家留学基金项目(201806090195)

摘　　要：为缓解交通供需冲突、改善居民出行结构模式,基于随机效用最大化理论,以特大城市南京为例,明确了影响出行方式选择行为的多重变量;通过建立混合logit(Mixed logit,ML)数理模型分析了家庭特征、个人属性、出行信息、居民出行OD位置4者的相互作用机理,并分析解读了ML模型输出的统计回归结果。研究结果表明:当时间要求性不高时,慢行方式的竞争性能得以凸显,但随着出行时间的增加,这种优势效用会逐步减弱;而在市郊、长距离行程中,公共交通(含地铁)或小汽车出行方式对旅客吸引力更大。In order to alleviate the conflicts of traffic supply and demand,improve the resident trip structure and mode,multiple variables impacting the travel mode choice were defined based on the random utility maximization theory with Nanjing City as a specific case.Mixed Logit（ML）model was established for analyzing and interpreting the influence and interaction mechanism of behavioral characteristics among household properties,individual attributes,trip information and the locations of trip ODs.The outcomes of ML model were analyzed by statistic regression.Results show that competitiveness of slow modes（non-motorized transport）become better if the time requirement is not high.However,with travel time increasing,the advantages op the slow modes are gradually weaken.Moreover,in suburbs and long distance trips,public transports（including metro）become more attractive to passengers. The results of statistic regression may help urban planners and transportation policy makers to integrate limited road resources systematically to ensure the resident travel comfortable,convenient and efficient.

关 键 词：交通运输系统工程 出行方式选择 混合Logit模型 居民出行结构优化 政策导向 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]