蒙西地区不同边界层参数化方案的近地层风场预报效果评估  

Evaluations of different boundary layer schemes on low-level wind prediction in western Inner Mongolia

作　　者：李玉鹏 王东海[1,3] 尹金方[1] LI Yupeng;WANG Donghai;YIN Jinfang(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Jilin Meteorological Science Institute,Changchun 130062,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]吉林省气象科学研究所,吉林长春130062 [3]中山大学大气科学学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第4期16-29,共14页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(91437221);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306004和GYHY201506002)

摘　　要：利用中尺度WRF(Weather Research Forecast)模式和GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)同化系统,通过改变边界层参数化方案对蒙西地区进行了7组回报试验,并基于70个国家级地面站和18座风塔观测对试验结果进行多方面检验。结果表明:模式的预报可以抓住实际风速风向的演变和位相变化。各边界层参数化方案的10 m和70 m风向较观测有轻微顺偏;各方案对有效风速(3~15 m/s)的预报效果最好,对满发风速(15~25 m/s)的效果次之,对无效风速(0~3 m/s)的预报效果最差;各方案都能模拟出风速风向的日变化特征,表现为白天风速随时间增大和风向的顺转,傍晚到夜间风速的减小和风向的逆转;各方案对10 m风场的预报差异较70 m的更为明显,且模拟的风速偏大,YSU方案对10 m风速的预报效果最好,ACM2对70 m风速预报效果最好;TEMF、YSU以及ACM2方案对风切变指数的预报较好;大气层结的稳定性对低层风场的模拟有比较重要的影响。In order to evaluate the performance of boundary layer （BL） schemes on wind prediction in western Inner Mongolia, seven hindcasting simulation experiments are conducted with different boundary layer parameterization configurations in Weather Research Forecast（WRF）. Observations from 70 national stations and 18 wind towers are used as the reference of the evaluations. The results are shown as follows： The variability of wind field can be captured in the numerical simulations. There exists a slightly clockwise deviation in the directions of 10 m and 70 m wind fields in all simulation experiments. The performance of BL schemes on 3-15 m/s wind field is superior to those on 15-25 m/s, while poor simulation results are presented on 0-5 m/s wind field. The diurnal variation of wind speed and direction can be described in all BL schemes, as corroborated by an increasing wind speed and a clockwise rotating wind direction during the daytime and a decreasing wind speed and a counterclockwise rotating wind direction during the nocturnal time. The differences of BL scheme experiments on 10 m wind field are more obvious than those on 70 m wind field, with a larger overestimation in the amplitude of wind. The YSU works best at 10 m wind speed, and ACM2 performs better at 70 m wind speed. The TEMF, YSU and ACM2 are more effective for prediction of wind shear. The atmospheric stability is of vital importance for the simulation of low-level wind field.

关 键 词：蒙西 风能发电 风场预报 边界层参数化方案 WRF 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]