排污权交易机制对绿色发展的影响  

Research on the influence of emission trading mechanism on green development

作　　者：傅京燕[1,2] 司秀梅 曹翔[2] FU Jing-yan;SI Xiu-mei;CAO Xiang(School of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510632,China;Institute of Resources,Environment and Sustainable Development Research,Jinan University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632 [2]暨南大学资源环境与可持续发展研究所,广东广州510632

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第8期12-21,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于强度减排的碳交易机制对产业竞争力影响的理论研究与ECGE模拟"(批准号:71273115);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"时间约束下中国碳排放峰值预测及低碳政策有效性研究--基于多区域多行业的综合评价模型"(批准号:15JNYH010)

摘　　要：进入新常态以来,中国面临着经济增速明显下滑和环境污染日益严重的双重不利局面。中国政府适时提出了绿色发展的新理念,并且明确了采用市场化机制来治理环境污染的思路。然而,关于市场化机制治理环境污染能否促进绿色发展的研究却相对欠缺。为此,本文在数据可获得性的基础上,以中国二氧化硫排污权交易试点政策为例,将绿色发展区分为绿色发展方式和绿色发展效应,分别构建同时包含好产出和坏产出的曼奎斯特-卢恩伯格指数和二氧化硫排放强度来衡量,以1998—2014年30个省级行政区的面板数据为基础,采用双重差分法和双重差分倾向性得分匹配法实证检验了中国二氧化硫排污权交易对绿色发展的影响及其作用机制。结果发现:(1)中国二氧化硫交易机制实施后虽然促进了绿色发展,但作用甚微;(2)研发强度、治污投入、技术引进促进了绿色发展,而要素禀赋结构、产业结构、能源结构则阻碍了绿色发展;(3)中国二氧化硫交易机制通过促进研发强度的提高促进绿色发展,而通过抑制治污投入、技术引进削弱其对绿色发展的促进作用;(4)中国二氧化硫交易机制通过提高资本劳动比增强其对绿色发展的抑制作用,而通过降低二产占比、化石能源占比减少其对绿色发展的负面影响。基于上述结论,本文认为,通过市场化机制更好地促进绿色发展,可以从以下方面入手:进一步优化中国二氧化硫排放权交易机制,充分发挥其"看不见的手"的功能,进一步增加绿色生产技术方面的研发投入,增加治理投入,加大力度吸收先进绿色生产技术领域的外资,提高要素禀赋结构、产业结构、能源结构的清洁化程度。Since entering the new normal,China faces dual unfavorable situation,which means that obvious decline occurs in economic growth and environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious. The Chinese government put forward the new idea of green development,and clearly defined that the market mechanism was adopted to control environment pollution. However,research about market mechanism and the green development is relatively deficient. Therefore,based on the available data,with China＇s sulfur dioxide emissions trading pilot policy as the research object,this paper divided green development into green development mode and green development effect,and constructed the Malmquist-Luenberger index that contains both good output and bad output and sulfur dioxide emissions intensity; then it used double difference method and double difference-propensity score matching method to analyze the influence and its mechanism of China＇s sulfur dioxide emissions trading scheme on green development by the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative region from 1998 to 2014. The results were as follows：（1） although sulfur dioxide trading mechanism promoted the green development in China,but its effect was small.（2）Research and development strength,anti-pollution investment,and technology transfer promoted the green development,while the factor endowment structure and industry structure,and energy structure hindered the green development.（3）China＇s sulfur dioxide trading mechanism promoted the green development by increasing research and development strength,and inhibited anti-pollution investment,while technology transfer weakened its role in promoting green development.（4）China＇s sulfur dioxide trading mechanism increased its inhibitory effect on green development by raising the capital labor ratio,and reduced its negative effects on the green development by reducing the proportion of the secondary industry and fossil energy proportion. Based on the above conclusions,this paper presented the follow

关 键 词：排污权交易 绿色发展 波特假说 倍差法 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]