突变级数法在底板突水预测中的应用  

Application of Catastrophe Progression Method on Forecast Floor Water Inrush

作　　者：李建朋[1] 母焕胜[1] LI Jian-peng, MU Huan-sheng(Hebei Province Transportation Planning ＆ Designing Institute, Shijiazhuang 050032, Chin)

机构地区：[1]河北省交通规划设计院,河北石家庄050032

出　　处：《煤矿开采》2018年第3期92-95,共4页Coal Mining Technology

基　　金：河北省交通运输厅科技项目(20130012)

摘　　要：基于突变级数法基本原理,提出了一种新的煤层底板突水危险性多指标综合预测方法。该方法选用含水层水压和富水性、断裂导水特性、隔水层层厚和构造发育情况作为评判指标,通过计算煤层底板突水实例的突变级数,并与其实际突水情况对照分析划分了突变级数的分类区间。依据此分类区间即可对煤层底板的突水危险性等级进行预测评判。最后,将该方法应用于样本外实例的突水预测中,并与实际情况对比分析,证明了其可行性与有效性。研究表明,该方法不需对指标赋权,可减少主观因素干扰,计算过程简单且预测结果较为准确可靠。Based on fundamental of catastrophe progression method,one new multi-index synthesis forecast method was put forward,which is for coal seam floor water inrush hazard. The following indexes as aquifer water pressure and watery,fractures water diversion,thickness of water proof layer and tectonic distribution were applied as evaluation indexes. According catastrophe progression of practical example of floor water inrush,classification of catastrophe progression on the basis of practical inrush situation was divided. So water inrush hazard class in coal seam floor could be forecast and evaluation. At the last,the method was applied on other examples,and contrast to the practical situation,its feasibility and effectiveness were verified. The results showed that the method did not need to be empowered,so subjective factors could be decreased in some degree,calculation process simple and forecast results was precision.

关 键 词：突变级数法 底板突水 危险性等级 预测方法 

分 类 号：TD745.2[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]