渭河流域宝鸡段气温及降水突变分析  

Mutation analysis of temperature and precipitation of Weihe river basin in Baoji section

作　　者：刘俊萍[1] 周俊杰[1] 邹先柏 LIU Junping,ZHOU Junjie,ZOU Xianbai(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,Chin)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《浙江工业大学学报》2018年第4期423-428,472,共7页Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LY14E090007);"环境科学与工程"浙江省重中之重学科开放基金资助项目(20150306)

摘　　要：采用累积距平法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、滑动T检验法和Yamamoto检验法等方法,对渭河流域宝鸡段1956—2008年的气温和降水进行突变分析.结果表明:1)年平均气温在1993—1994年发生增高的突变.春、夏、秋、冬四季气温分别在1993,1993,1986,1987年发生增高突变;夏季气温在1975年发生降低突变.2)年降水量时间序列在1992年发生减少突变;春季降水量在1991,2000年发生减少突变;夏季降水量在1962年发生增多突变;秋季和冬季检验结果不突出,无法证明发生突变.3)多种突变检测方法相结合进行突变检测,即说明了出现突变的时间,又可以印证突变时间的准确性.The abrupt change of temperature and precipitation of Weihe river basin in Baoji section from 1956 to 2008 were analyzed by using cumulative anomaly method,Mann-Kendall method,MTT,Yamamoto method.The results showed that：1）The annual mean temperature sudden increased during 1993-1994.Sudden increased changes in 1993,1993,1986,1987 separately corresponding to spring,summer,autumn and winter temperature,while the summer temperature also has decreased mutation in 1975.2）The annual precipitation has reduced mutation in 1992,while the spring precipitation in 1991 and 2000.Summer precipitation has sudden increased change in 1962.The test results of autumn and winter precipitation were not notable.3）A variety of mutation methods were used to mutation analysis,which shows the time of mutation and the accuracy of mutation time.

关 键 词：气温 降水 滑动T检验法 M-K法 突变分析 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]