人民币汇率改革历程及其基本经验  

The Process and Basic Experience of the RMB Exchange Rate Reform

作　　者：赵志君[1,2] 孙冶方 Zhao Zhijun

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学 [3]不详

出　　处：《改革》2018年第7期43-52,共10页Reform

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国中亚货币合作与人民币区域化和国际化研究”(批准号：71263050); 中国社会科学院创新工程项目“公司治理、金融与创新增长”

摘　　要：运用统计归纳和历史分析法,对新中国成立特别是改革开放以来人民币汇率改革的历史进程进行了考察。将汇率改革划分为官方单一汇率体制、双轨汇率体制、钉住美元的单一浮动汇率体制和钉住一篮子货币的单一汇率体制等四种类型,每一种类型又按不同阶段特征进行分类,考察了历次汇率改革的国内外社会经济背景,分析了汇率体制变化的决定因素以及购买力平价、利率平价和蒙代尔-弗莱明模型等理论的局限性,总结和概括了人民币汇率改革的基本经验,得到了一些规律性认识。This paper uses statistical induction and historical analytical method to examine the historical process of RMB exchange rate system reform since the founding of the People＇s Republic of China, especially since the reform and opening up. This article divides the exchange rate system into four types： the official single exchange rate system, the dual exchange rate system, single floating exchange rate system that pegs dollar and single floating exchange rate system that pegs a basket of currencies. Each type is divided into different stages. The characteristics were categorized. The domestic social and economic background and international environment of previous exchange rate system reforms were examined. The determinants of exchange rate system changes and the limitations of the theory of purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, and the Mundell-Fleming model were analyzed. The basic experience of the reform of the RMB exchange rate system is summarized and some regular understandings of the changes in the RMB exchange rate are obtained.

关 键 词：汇率改革 双轨汇率体制 购买力平价 利率平价 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]