适用于楼宇住房的重复售出价格指数模型研究  

Using Repeat Sales Model to Estimate High-rise Housing Price Index

作　　者：许永洪 Xu Yonghong

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院计划统计系

出　　处：《统计研究》2018年第7期38-48,共11页Statistical Research

摘　　要：与欧美国家不同,我国的住房以楼宇住房为主。对于同一栋楼宇,不同楼层的同一户型,除楼层差别外,其他居住品质基本相同。因此,本文提出了"类重复"交易规则,用于把同一楼盘的不同时期销售的住房转化成可以直接对比的同质性产品的"重复交易",从而将国外较为主流的重复售出模型应用到我国新建住房价格指数构建中。本文分析了楼宇住房建筑和定价特征,发掘了楼宇住宅"同质性"样本的"类重复"规则,设置了消除直接对比偏差的"配对规则",以及编制指数需要的基期价格计算和特殊事件处理规则。利用脱敏后的新建住房合同交易数据,本文的实证模拟验证了类重复规则的可行性,并讨论了指数偏差和使用原则。Unlike European and American countries,high-rise apartment is the main type of housing in China. For the same building,different floors have the same floor plan,which offer us same living quality except of floors difference. Therefore,this paper proposes a repeat-sales-like rule to find the typical ＂repeat transaction＂in the same apartment complex from different period,which will make repeat sales model available in estimating China＇s new constructed housing price index. In this paper,I analyze the building of housing construction and pricing characteristics,explore the ＂homogeneity＂sample,and set up ＂matching rules＂to eliminate bias in direct contrast,and I also suggest rules for base price and special transaction. Using the transaction data of new constructed houses,this paper makes the empirical simulation to verify the feasibility of the repeat-sales-like rule,and discusses the index bias and application principles.

关 键 词：重复售出模型 住房价格指数 类重复规则 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]