巴黎协定下主要国家自主减排力度评估和比较  

Assessment and comparison of the ambitions of main countries' nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement

作　　者：潘勋章 王海林[2] PAN Xun-zhang;WANG Hai-lin(Academy of Chinese Energy-Strategy-,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China;Institute of Energy Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)中国能源战略研究院,北京102249 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第9期8-15,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"巴黎协定背景下国家自主贡献的评估;强化及影响研究"(批准号:71703167);科技部国家重点研发计划课题"世界主要国家碳减排潜力与经济代价研究"(批准号:2017YFA0605302);中国石油大学(北京)科研基金"2°C温升目标下我国能源系统转型研究:公平的碳预算视角"(批准号:2462016YJRC023)

摘　　要：巴黎协定确认了将本世纪末全球平均温升控制在不超过工业化前2℃并努力控制在1.5℃内的长期目标。合理地评估和比较各国国家自主贡献(NDC)减排力度将是全球集体盘点的主要内容之一,对于促进各国提振自主减排力度进而弥补与2℃甚至1.5℃的排放差距具有重要价值。本文在选取的2℃和1.5℃全球排放路径下,运用基于16种分配方案的排放配额为比较依据和基准,对中国、印度、巴西、南非四个发展中国家和美国、欧盟(28)、日本、俄罗斯四个发达国家和地区NDC对应的CO2减排力度进行评估。研究结果表明,发达国家NDC总体上位于2℃配额范围最上端或高于最大配额,距离实现1.5℃目标缺口很大,因此,发达国家需尽量提振其NDC力度,带头强化减排。对于我国而言,相比2030年当年评估,基于累计排放的评估结果将更可能准确地揭示我国NDC力度及其公平性,我国NDC位于2℃累计配额中位数附近且符合1.5℃累计配额范围。巴黎协定还要求各国在2020年前提交面向2050年的长期减排目标。本文从碳排放配额的角度发现,若要使本世纪中期CO2排放满足2℃和1.5℃配额,我国到2050年至少需要相对2010年减排约42%和65%,相应的2030—2050年CO2年均减排率需要至少达到3.0%和5.3%,这或可为我国决策部门考虑2050年减排目标提供参考。The Paris Agreement established a long-term goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2% and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ℃ by the end of this century. Therefore, properly assessing and comparing national NDC mitigation ambitions would be a main content in global stoektake, which is important to the considerations of enhancing efforts to close the emissions gap with 2℃ and 1.5℃. To this end, this paper assesses the NDC ambition of China, India, Brazil, South Africa, the USA, EU-28, Japan and Russia, respectively, by applying emissions allowances allocated by 16 effort-sharing approaches under selected 2℃ and 1.5℃ pathways. Results demonstrate that, the NDCs of developed countries generally locate above or in the upper-ends of the 2℃-consistent ranges of emissions allowances and present even big gaps with the 1.5℃-consistent ranges, implying developed countries need to ratchet up the NDCs and take the lead in elevating the level of mitigation. An assessment based on cunmlative emissions, compared against that based on 2030 emissions, is more likely to clarify the ambition and fairness of China＇ s NDC. The projected NDC emissions of China meet the median of cunmlative allowances under 2℃ and align with the 1.5℃-consistent ranges. The Paris Agreement also invited the Parties to conmunieate, by 2020, the mid-century, long-term low emissions strategies. To hold mid-century emissions within calculated 2050 emissions allowances, our allocations find that China might need to reduce CO2 emissions by over 42% and 65% from the 2010 levels under 2℃ and 1.5℃, respectively by 2050. The corresponding annual mitigation rates, from 2030 to 2050, are at least 3.0% and 5.3% in average, respectively. These might help China＇ s decision-makers consider the 2050 mitigation targets.

关 键 词：气候变化 巴黎协定 自主贡献 排放配额 2050年目标 

分 类 号：D820[政治法律—政治学]