基于复杂网络的空中交通态势风险评估方法  

Research on assessment of risk in air traffic situation based on complex network

作　　者：王红勇 温瑞英 WANG Hongyong;WEN Ruiying(Tianjin Key Laboratory for Air Traffic Operation Planning and Safety Technology,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,Chin)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学天津市空管运行规划与安全技术重点实验室

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2018年第5期172-178,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空局联合资助(U1333108);天津市应用基础与前沿技术研究计划(14JCQNJC04500)

摘　　要：为提升空中交通管理系统运行能力,利用复杂网络理论研究空中交通态势风险的客观测度方法。以航空器、航路点、航路为节点,提出这3类节点间风险关系的计算方法,并以风险关系为边,建立动态加权空中交通网络模型;将网络中所有边的权值总和定义为空中交通态势总体风险值;选取典型空中交通情景计算验证模型的有效性。研究表明：空中交通态势风险值随航空器之间汇聚度、航空器与关键点接近度以及航空器偏离航段程度的增强而增大,反之亦然。因此,该方法综合空域结构和交通流特征对空中交通态势的影响,量化了空中交通态势的风险程度。The paper was aimed at increasing the capacity of air traffic management systems by developing a new method for measurement of air traffic situation risk based on the theory of complex network. The aircraft,waypoints,and airways were regarded as nodes,and the risk relations among these nodes as edges,a dynamic weighted network model was built. Air traffic situation risk was defined as the sum of weights of all edges in the network. The physical significance of the risk relationships between elements and the detailed modeling process were demonstrated and discussed by some typical practical cases to verify the validity of the model and algorithm. The results indicate that air traffic situation risk increases with the enhancement of the convergence between aircraft, the proximity of aircraft with waypoints,and the deviation of aircraft from the airway,and vice versa,and that this method considering the effects of both airspace and traffic flow can objectively quantify air traffic situation risk.

关 键 词：空中交通管理 风险评估 复杂网络 加权网络 动态网络 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]