技术进步、空间竞争与产业区位变化——基于产业区位一般均衡模型的实证与模拟  

Technological Progress, Spatial Competition and Industrial Location Variation: An Empirical Analysis and Simulation Based on the General Equilibrium Model of Industrial Location

作　　者：毛琦梁[1] Mao Qiliang(School of Urban Economics and Public Administration,Capital University of Economics and Busines;Beijing Key Laboratory of Megaregions Sustainable Development Simulation,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院//城市群系统演化与可持续发展的决策模拟研究北京市重点实验室,北京100070

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2018年第15期127-138,共12页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目"基于集聚力与扩散力博弈的我国产业转移响应机制研究"(41501132)

摘　　要：构建融入技术进步的产业区位一般均衡模型,并据此推导出应用现实数据估计并进行情景模拟的实证模型;在此基础上,以中国西北地区水泥工业为例,模拟技术进步对产业区位的影响,探索经济活动空间格局的塑造机制。研究结果发现:在投入要素成本不变情况下,技术进步驱使企业生产成本降低,从而促进新一轮空间竞争;在长期,产业集聚会进一步增强,并聚集到更小的地区范围,原先市场规模大、产业基础好的地区仍为主要集聚地区,其他地区则更会被边缘化。This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of industrial location, derives an empirical mode to estimate and simulate the situation by using realistic data. On the basis of this, taking the cement industry in northwest China as an example, the influence of technological progress on industry location is simulated, and the shaping mechanism of economic activity spatial pattern is explored. The results show that, under the condition of constant input factor cost, technological progress drives the enterprise production cost down, thus promoting a new round of space competition; in the long run, industrial agglomeration will be further strengthened and gathered to a smaller regional scope, the original market size is large, the industrial basis of the region is still the main agglomeration area, other regions will be more marginalized.

关 键 词：技术进步 空间竞争 产业区位一般均衡模型 产业区位 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.4