CLIGEN天气发生器模拟沈阳地区降水的适用性评价  

Adaptability evaluation of the CLIGEN model generated precipitation in Shenyang region

作　　者：宋晓巍 李琳琳 张琳 刘青[1] 李石[1] 慕臣英[1] 董国平[4] 张菁[1] SONG Xiao-wei1, LI Lin-lin2, ZHANG Lin3 ,LIU Qing1, LI Shi1, MU Chen-ying1, DONG Guo-ping4, ZHANG Jing1(1. Shenyang Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168 ,China; 2. Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China; 3. Liaoyang County Meteorological Service, Liaoyang 111299, China; 4. Liaoning Branch, China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Shenyang 110166, China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳市气象局,辽宁沈阳110168 [2]辽宁省气象科学研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [3]辽阳县气象局,辽宁辽阳111299 [4]中国气象局气象干部培训学院辽宁分院,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2018年第4期26-35,共10页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项课题"我国陆地生态系统固碳潜力与速率的综合模拟与集成分析"(XDA05050600)资助

摘　　要：利用1981—2015年沈阳地区7个气象站的日观测数据,通过CLIGEN(Climate Generater)天气发生器模拟沈阳地区日降水序列数据,并统计模拟日降水量、月降水量、年降水量及年最大日降水量,利用平均值、标准差、偏度及峰度对CLIGEN天气发生器模拟的沈阳地区降水进行适用性评价。结果表明:CLIGEN天气发生器对沈阳地区日降水量、月降水量和年降水量平均值的模拟效果较好,模拟降水量的平均相对误差绝对值(Mean Absolute Relative Error,MARE)分别为2.1%、1.3%和3.3%,年最大日降水量的模拟精度稍差。对于降水最大值方面,CLIGEN天气发生器对沈阳地区日最大降水量和年最大降水量的模拟效果较差,模拟的日最大降水量和年最大降水量相对误差的最大值分别为-27.2%、18.3%。GLIGEN天气发生器能较好地模拟沈阳地区的月降水量和年降水量,t检验、F检验和K-S检验均表明,模拟的日最大降水量与年最大日降水量仅康平站达到极显著水平。从总体模拟效果来看,CLIGEN天气发生器能较好地模拟沈阳地区平均降水的统计特征。Using daily weather data in Shenyang from 1981 to 2001, the daily precipitation data were generated by the CLIGEN model. The daily,monthly,annual,and annual maximum daily precipitation values simulated and measured were compared. The applicability of the model was evaluated using mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis statistic data. The results show that the CLIGEN model generates better simulation results for daily,monthly and annual precipitation amounts,and the corresponding MARES（ Mean Absolute Relative Error） are2. 1%,1. 3%,and 3. 3%, respectively. However, the simulation accuracy of annual maximum precipitation amount is slightly worse. As for the extreme values in precipitation, the simulation results of daily and annual maximum precipitation amounts are not good. The maximum errors of daily and annual maximum precipitation amounts reach to-27. 2% and 18. 3%, respectively. The CLIGEN model can better simulate the monthly and annual precipitation.Based on t,F and K-S tests, it indicates that only Kangping station reaches the very significant level in the daily and annual maximum daily precipitation amounts. In general, the CLIGEN model can better simulate the statistical characteristics of precipitation in Shenyang region.

关 键 词：天气发生器 CLIGEN 降水 插值 检验 

分 类 号：R426.6[医药卫生—临床医学]