基于置信度理论和多元线性回归方程的电网负荷预测  

Network Load Forecasting Based on Confidence Theory and Multiple Linear Regression Equation

作　　者：谢毓广[1] 刘童[2,3] 陈凡 马金辉[1] XIE Yuguang;LIU Tong;CHEN Fan;MA Jinhui(Anhui Electric Power Science Research Institute,Hefei 230601,China;School of Eleclrical Engineering and Automation,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Industrial Energy Saving and Power Quality Control,Hefei 230601,)

机构地区：[1]安徽省电力科学研究院,安徽合肥230022 [2]安徽大学电气工程与自动化学院,安徽合肥230601 [3]安徽大学工业节电与电能质量控制协同创新中心,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《电工技术》2018年第13期42-45,共4页Electric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(编号51507001);国家重点研发计划项目(编号2016YFB0900400);国家电网公司科技项目(编号521205160021);国家自然科学基金(编号61673001);安徽大学2015博士科研启动项目(编号J01001929)

摘　　要：首先根据负荷百分比法和置信度理论得到预测期间负荷百分比曲线的上下限;然后建立多元线性回归方程,求出负荷预测曲线;最后对具体算例进行分析,结果验证了该预测模型的合理性及预测方法的有效性。Firstly,the upper and lower limit of the curve of predicted load percentage based on the load percentage method and the confidence theory is obtained,and then the multiple linear regression equation is established to obtain the load forecasting curve.Finally,a specific computing example is analyzed,and the results verify the rationality of the prediction model and the effectiveness of the prediction method.

关 键 词：电网 负荷预测 置信度 线性回归 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]