考虑主观风险态度的建筑结构地震风险决策  

Seismic risk decision-making of building structures considering subjective risk attitude

作　　者：潘晨 李全旺[1] Pan Chen;Li Quanwang(Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学,北京100084

出　　处：《土木工程学报》2018年第9期121-128,共8页China Civil Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0701404);国家自然科学基金(51778337)

摘　　要：针对全寿命周期成本最小准则不能反映决策者主观风险态度的不足,引入效用理论这一经典决策模型探讨风险厌恶态度对地震风险决策的影响。以12栋抗震设计等级不同的办公楼为例,分别从公共决策者风险厌恶视角的抗震设计和私人决策者风险厌恶视角的地震保险投保两个方面,研究了降低风险和转移风险两种行为的最优决策问题。结果表明,最优的抗震设计等级随风险厌恶程度的加大而提升;业主在购买地震保险时,随风险厌恶程度的加大和结构抗震等级的下降,倾向于接受更高的地震保险费用。The design criterion of minimum life-cycle cost can＇t reflect the subjective risk attitude of decision maker. To remove this deficiency, the utility theory, as a classical decision model, is adopted to investigate the influence of risk aversion on decision-making considering seismic risk. With 12 office buildings with different seismic design levels taken as the examples, the optimal strategies of seismic risk mitigation and seismic risk transfer are studied. Risk mitigation refers to seismic design from the perspective of society（public decision maker）, while risk transfer refers to making an earthquake insurance contract from the perspective of property owner（private decision maker）. The analysis results show that the optimal seismic design level may increase with the rising degree of risk aversion. Earthquake insurance premium which property owner could accept may increase, with the rising degree of risk aversion and the decrease of seismic resistance of structures.

关 键 词：风险厌恶 抗震设计 地震保险 公共决策者 私人决策者 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济] TU352.1[建筑科学—结构工程]