需求不确定下企业生产规模选择及影响因素研究  

Study on the Scale and Influence Factors of Enterprise Production under Demand Uncertainty

作　　者：谭英双[1] 张雪清 衡爱民[2] TAN Ying-shuang;ZHANG Xue-qing;HENG Ai-min(College of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China;International Business School,Sichuan International Studies University,Chongqing 400031,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030 [2]四川外国语大学国际商学院,重庆400031

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2018年第8期138-145,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(16BGL006)

摘　　要：基于企业生产规模的不同情况,讨论了需求不确定下企业生产规模决策问题,构建了企业生产规模决策模型并得出了不同条件下的表达式。分析表明：需求不确定下企业存在生产最优规模,随着成本的增加,企业最优生产规模临界值将增大,利率、市场力量与企业最优生产规模负相关;企业生产规模为Q时,企业最优生产规模与单位时间收益流的波动率和期望增长率正相关,而与单位成本无关;在区间0≤q（t）≤Q,企业最优生产规模与企业单位时间收益流的波动率负相关,随着企业单位时间收益流的期望增长率的增加先降低后增加,且随着企业单位成本C的增加先不变后增加。这为需求不确定下企业生产规模决策提供了一种解释。Based on the different circumstances of the company＇s production scale,the issue of the enterprise＇s production scale decision-making under the uncertainty of the demand was discussed.A decisionmaking model for the production scale of the company was constructed and expressions under different conditions were obtained.The analysis shows that if the demand is uncertain,the company has the optimal production scale.With the increase of the cost,the critical value of the optimal production scale of the company will increase.The interest rate and market force are negatively related to the optimal production scale of the enterprise.When the scale of enterprise production is,the optimal production scale of an enterprise is positively related to the volatility and expected growth rate of the unit-time income stream,while has nothing to do with the unit cost.Within the range,the optimal production scale is negatively related to the volatility of the enterprise＇s unit time income flow.As the company＇s unit time revenue flow expects an increase in the growth rate,it first decreases and then increases,and as the company＇s unit cost（C）increases,it first remains unchanged and then increases.This provides one kind of explanation for the decision-making of enterprises＇ production scale under the uncertainty of demand.

关 键 词：需求不确定 生产规模 影响因素 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理] F283[经济管理—国民经济]