2018年3-5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验  

Performace Verification of Medium-Range Forecasts by T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2018

作　　者：任宏昌 REN Hongchang(National Meteorological Centre, CMA, Beijing 10008)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2018年第8期1104-1109,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2015BAC03B07);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430203)共同资助

摘　　要：对2018年3-5月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验。结果表明:三个模式对欧亚中高纬环流形势的调整和演变均具有较好的预报性能,能较准确地反映出欧亚地区中高纬大尺度环流形势的演变和调整,表现出较好的中期预报能力。在副热带高压偏弱的背景下,ECMWF和T639模式在中期时效能够较好地对副热带高压的南北摆动进行预报。三个模式对我国南方和北方的温度预报偏高,其中春季前期温度变化较大,预报效果较差,4月下旬至5月气温变化平稳,预报效果略好。整体而言,各模式对温度的升降波动预报较为准确,ECMWF模式的预报效果最好。对3月27-29日的沙尘天气过程进行分析发现,ECMWF模式对此次过程低压中心和后部冷高压的中期预报指示意义较好。The medium range forecasts calculated by the T369, ECMWF and Japan （JP） models are verified. The results show that all of the three models could well predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over middle and high latitudes in Eurasia, and among them the ECMWF model performs the best, which has a good performance in predicting activity of western Pacific subtropical high. All the three models perform well in predicting the transition of temperature at 850 hPa, but they tend to overestimated the temperature over the north and south of China. For southern China, three models have smaller biases in temperature prediction than for northern China, and the ECMWF model has better performance than T639 and Japan model. As far as the sandstorm precess seen in 27-29 March, the ECMWF model is more effective than Japan and T639 model in medium range forecasting of the surface high pressure system which incurred the sandstorm weather this time.

关 键 词：T639模式 ECMWF模式 日本模式 中期天气预报 天气学检验 

分 类 号：P459[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]