基于权重反分析和云模型的围岩稳定性评价方法  

Stability Evaluation Method of Surrounding Rock Based on Cloud Model and Weight Back Analysis

作　　者：高岭[1] 李建朋[1] 母焕胜[1] GAO Ling, LI Jianpeng, MU Huansheng(Hebei Provincial Communications Planning and Design Institute, Shijiazhuang 050011, Hebei, China)

机构地区：[1]河北省交通规划设计院,河北石家庄050011

出　　处：《水力发电》2018年第9期42-46,共5页Water Power

基　　金：河北省交通运输厅科技项目(20130012)

摘　　要：针对围岩稳定性评价云模型方法指标赋权过程中存在的主观因素干扰问题,提出了权重反分析与云模型的耦合方法。在选定评价指标的基础上,推导建立了以指标权重为自变量,以云模型方法为评价指标与评价结果间映射关系的优化目标函数,在MATLAB软件中实现了各指标权重的反分析,通过回代检验和泛化能力检验,验证了反分析赋权云模型的可行性与可靠性。工程应用表明,与等权云模型、专家赋权型云模型相比,基于权重反分析与云模型耦合方法建立的围岩稳定性评价云模型主观干扰因素少,预测准确率较高。In order to solve the disturbance problem of subjective factors in the process of index weighting for cloud model method in surrounding rock stability evaluation, the coupling method of weight back analysis and cloud model is proposed.After the selection of evaluation index, the optimization objective function with index weight as independent variable and cloud model method as the mapping relationship between evaluation index and evaluation result is deduced. The weight back analysis of each index is carried out in MATLAB software, and the feasibility and reliability of weight back analysis cloud model are verified by back test and generalization ability test. The engineering application shows that, compared with equal weight cloud model and expert weighted cloud model, the cloud model for evaluating the stability of surrounding rock based on weight back analysis and cloud model coupling method has the advantages of less subjective interference factors and higher prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：围岩稳定性评价 云模型 权重反分析 回代检验 泛化能力检验 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]