利用GPS资料预报局地降雨初步成果  

Preliminary Result for Local Precipitation Forecast Using GPS Data

作　　者：赵庆志[1] 马雄伟 ZHAO Qing-zhi;MA Xiong-wei(College of Geometrics,Xi＇ an University of Science and Technology,Xi＇ an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学测绘科学与技术学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《技术与创新管理》2018年第5期617-624,共8页Technology and Innovation Management

基　　金：西安科技大学优秀青年科技基金项目"基于实时PPP技术的四维水汽探测研究及其在灾害性天气中的应用(2018YQ3-12)";西安科技大学博士启动金项目"对流层层析及在灾害性天气预警中的应用研究(2017QDJ041)"

摘　　要：利用2015年5-7月浙江连续运行参考站(Continuously Operating Reference Station,CORS)和2013—2014年香港卫星定位参考站网(Satellite Positioning Reference Station Network,SatRef)的GPS观测数据对大气可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor,PWV)的变化与地表相对湿度(Surface Relative Humidity,SRH)、局部实际降水量之间的关系进行分析。实验发现,PWV与局地降水成正相关关系;降水事件多数出现在PWV上升至最大值以及PWV迅速下降的时间段内;在有降水发生时,SRH的变化趋势与PWV变化趋势基本一致。此外,PWV增量的大小与每小时降水量的峰值关系很大,且在有大雨发生是尤为明显。根据上述发现,提出了基于单站GPS观测资料合理预报局地降水的方法;该方法能够预报出80%以上的降水事件和90%以上的大雨事件,这对降水事件的短期预报具有十分重要的意义。The relationship between Precipitable Water Vapor（ PWV）, Surface Relative Humidity（SRH） and local precipita- tion is analyzed using data both from Continuously Operating Reference Station（CORS） of Zhejiang province from May- to Ju- ly 2015 and Satellite Positioning Reference Station Network（SatRef） from 2013 to 2014. The result shows that PWV is posi- tively correlated with the local precipitation. In most cases, the events of precipitation occurred during the period of PWV up to a maxinmnl and sharp decline, in which the trend of SRH is basically identical with PWV＇ s. In addition, the incremental of PWV has a great relationship with hourly precipitation peak, especially obvious when the severe rain event occurs. Ac- cording to the findings, a method to forecast the local precipitation reasonably is proposed based on the data from single GPS station. This method are able to forecast more than 80% of total rain events and more than 90% of severe rain events,which is very- important to the short-term forecast of precipitation events.

关 键 词：大气可降水量 地表相对湿度 局部实际降水量 降水预报 

分 类 号：P28[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]