从“剑桥能源周”看未来能源战略走势  

Observe Strategic Trend for Future Energy from “CERAWeek”

作　　者：万宏[1] 陆如泉[2] 单卫国[3] 江河[3] 张震[4] 王曦[5] 胡勇 蒋平 Wan Hong;Lu Ruquan;Shan Weiguo;Jiang He;Zhang Zhen;Wang Xi;Hu Yong;Jiang Ping(CNPC Policy Research Offce,Beijing 100007,China;CNPC International Department,Beijing 100007,China;CNPC Economics ＆ Technology Research Institute,Beijing 100724,China;PetroChina Planning ＆ Engineering Institute,Beijing 100083,China;PetroChina Institute of Petroleum Exploration ＆ Development,Beijing 100083,China;China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation,Beijing 100034,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气集团公司政策研究室 [2]中国石油天然气集团公司国际部 [3]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [4]中国石油规划总院 [5]中国石油勘探开发研究院 [6]中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司

出　　处：《石油科技论坛》2018年第4期55-61,76,共8页PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORUM

摘　　要：第 37届剑桥能源周的基本共识:今后一个时期石油需求增长强劲,油气仍是未来能源主角,但能源转型是大势所趋;天然气作为洁净能源将继续引领化石能源发展,亚洲是需求增长主力;技术和管理创新对能源行业将产生巨大的颠覆性影响;石油公司将优化资产组合,加强战略合作;全球海上及深水油气业务将触底反弹;能源地缘政治态势恶化,对油气市场带来不确定因素;美国提出"能源新现实主义"命题与发展等。建议我国石油公司加强能源转型研究,制定切实可行的能源转型战略;加强传统领域技术创新与跨领域技术创新的融合;加强对美国"能源新现实主义"政策以及能源地缘政治的研究;抓住当前LNG买方市场机遇,择机签订LNG长贸合同。A fundamental consensus was reached at the 37th CERAWeek： Oil demand will grow strongly in the years to come, with oil and gas remaining as the mainstay for future energy. However, energy transformation is an inevitable trend. As clean energy, natural gas will continue to lead fossil energy development with the demand rising mainly in Asia. Technological and management innovations will exert huge and substantial infuence on energy industry while oil companies optimize their assets restructuring and beef up strategic cooperation. Global offshore and deepwater oil and gas industry will bottom out. Deterioration of the energy geopolitical situation brings the oil and gas market some uncertain factors. The United States comes up with the proposition and development of “New Realism of Energy”. It is proposed that China’s oil companies should enhance the study of energy transformation, formulate a feasible energy transformation strategy, and accelerate integration of technological innovation between the traditional area and the cross-disciplinary areas. Meanwhile, they should also enhance the study of US “New Realism of Energy” policy and energy geopolitics and take the current opportunity of LNG buyer’s market to sign long-term LNG trade contracts at an appropriate time.

关 键 词：能源战略 能源转型 天然气发展 深水油气 碳减排 技术创新 人工智能 区块链 资产组合优化 地缘政治 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济] TE-9[石油与天然气工程]