基于气象因素的供热机组热负荷预测方法的改进  

The Improvement Method of Forecast Heat Load of Heating Unit Based on Meteorological Factors

作　　者：周振起[1] 王盛华 Zhou Zhenqi;Wang Shenghua(Energy Resource and Power Engineering College,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin Jilin 132012)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学能源与动力工程学院,吉林吉林132012

出　　处：《东北电力大学学报》2018年第5期64-68,共5页Journal of Northeast Electric Power University

摘　　要：针对"三北"地区供热机组在供暖期按照"以热定电"方式运行,强迫出力大时,供热机组调峰能力降低.拟合供热机组采暖热负荷和室外温度,利用当日气象因素修正室外温度,提高其与采暖热负荷拟合优度R2值.通过MATLAB编程,给往日气象因素对当日室外温度影响赋予合理的权重,进一步提高室外温度与采暖热负荷拟合优度,提高采暖热负荷预测精度.精确预测采暖热负荷是实现供热机组按需供热,预测供热机组调峰范围的前提.The combined heat and power unit orders power by heat during heating period in the Three Norths.The capacity of peak shaving will decrease for large force output.Fitting heat loads of heat supply units and outdoor temperatures.The goodness of fit, R 2 ,can be improved through modifying the outside temperatures by meteorological factors.Putting reasonable weights to effects of meteorological factors to outside temperatures of past few days through MATLAB programming will improve the goodness of fit of outdoor temperatures and heating loads which means improving predicted accuracies of heating loads.Accurate predictions of heating loads are premises to achieve on-demand supply heating and predict scopes of peak shaving of heat supply units.

关 键 词：气象因素 权重 拟合优度 热负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM621.4[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]