中国水产品出口增长模式研究——基于三元边际的分解  

Research on export growth model of chinese aquatic products——Based on three margin method

作　　者：邵桂兰[1] 吕先坤 李晨[1,2] SHAO Gui-lan;LV Xian-kun;LIChen(College of Economy,Ocean University of China,Shandong Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2018年第3期90-99,共10页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目<我国海洋渔业经济低碳化实现机制研究>(11BJY064);山东省社会科学规划研究项目<新常态下山东省海洋战略性新兴产业创新驱动研究>(16DJJJ14);山东省社会科学规划研究项目重大理论与实践问题研究专项<山东省海洋经济新旧动能接续转换研究>(18CSJJ01)研究成果

摘　　要：本文从三元边际视角对中国水产品出口增长进行分析,利用2003-2015年HS92六分位贸易数据,将中国水产品出口份额分解为扩展边际、价格边际和数量边际,分析我国水产品出口增长状况。运用核密度估计技术,对中国水产品出口的25个主要国家或地区的三元边际动态变化进行分析。结果表明:中国水产品出口增长主要来源于数量和价格,数量增长的贡献度最大,价格次之,而扩展边际即水产品出口种类起到了负向作用,从价格边际实证数据看,中国水产品出口价格虽始终低于世界平均水平,却一直保持增长趋势,并逐渐接近世界水平。This paper studies the export of Chinese aquatic products from the perspective of three margin. It divides the share of China＇s foreign trade in aquatic products into the marginal margin, the marginal price, the marginal number using the HS92 trade quota of 2003 to 2015 and analyzes the export of aquatic products in China Growth status. Finally it uses the kernel density estimation technique to analyze the ternary marginal dynamic changes of 25 major countries or regions of China＇s aquatic products exports. The results show that the continuous growth of China＇s aquatic exports is mainly due to the increase in quantity and price, the largest contribution to the increase in quantity, the price second, and the expansion margin, that is, the export of aquatic products has played a negative role from the price marginal empirical data. Although China＇s aquatic products export price always lowers than the world average, but it has maintained a growth trend and is approaching the world level.

关 键 词：水产品 出口增长 三元边际 核密度估计 

分 类 号：F326.406[经济管理—产业经济]