1961—2014年新疆北部地区气温时空变化特征  

Spatiotemporal Variation of Temperature in North Xinjiang during the Period of 1961-2014

作　　者：谭娇 丁建丽[1,2] 张钧泳 武鹏飞[3] TAN Jlao;DING Jian-li;ZHANG Jun-yong;WU Peng-fei(Key Laboratory of Wisdom City and Environmental Modeling of Ministry of Education,Xinjiang University,Ururnqi 830046,Xinjiang,China;Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education,Urumqi 830046,Xinjiang,China;Ururmli Meteorological Satellite Ground Station,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院智慧城市与环境建模自治区普通高校重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆乌鲁木齐气象卫星地面站,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2018年第5期1181-1191,共11页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41771470,U1303381,41261090);自治区重点实验室专项基金(2016D03001);自治区科技支疆项目(201591101);新疆大学博士生科技创新项目(XJUBSCX-2016015);教育部促进与美大地区科研合作及高层次人才培养项目资助

摘　　要：利用新疆北部地区（下称北疆）41个气象站1961—2014年月平均气温资料,运用线性倾向率、滑动平均、基于Arc GIS的混合插值法、累积距平分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验,基于Matlab的Morlet小波分析等方法对北疆地区年及季节气温变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）北疆地区年及季节平均气温出现多次冷暖波动,均呈显著增温趋势。其中,年及春、夏、秋季从20纪90年代以后增温显著,冬季20世纪80年代以后增温显著。（2）北疆地区年平均气温倾向率为0.35℃·（10a）^（-1）,增温幅度较大区域主要在准噶尔盆地、塔城地区及富蕴。（3）北疆地区年及四季平均气温均发生突变。其中,年、春、夏、秋季平均气温突变主要发生在20世纪90年代,冬季气温突变主要发生在70年代末。（4）北疆地区年平均气温在近54 a存在27 a主周期和14 a次周期,气温冷暖交替,周期表现具有全域性。In this study,the monthly average temperature data from 41 meteorological stations in north Xinjiang during the period from 1961 to 2014 were used to analyze the annual and seasonal abrupt changes of temperature.The methods of linear trend analysis,moving average,three-dimensional quadratic trend surface simulation based on GIS,cumulative anomaly analysis,Mann-Kendall test and Morlet analysis based on Matlab were applied.The main results are as follows：（1）The average annual and seasonal temperatures in north Xinjiang were characterized by several cold and warm fluctuations,however,the average temperature was holistically in a significant increase trend at statistically significance level since the 1990s except that in winter;（2）The increase of average annual temperature in north Xinjiang was 0.35℃·（10a）^（-1）.The significant temperature increase occurred in the Junggar Basin,Tacheng and north Fuyun County;（3）There were the abrupt changes in average seasonal temperature and annual temperature in north Xinjiang.The abrupt changes in average annual,spring,summer and autumn temperature occurred mainly in the late 1990s,but those in average winter temperature mainly in the late 1970s;（4）There was a27-year main period of the changes of annual and seasonal temperature in north Xinjiang,and also a 14-year sub-period during the period from 1961 to 2014.The high-low temperature alternations were global.

关 键 词：气温变化 区域差异 突变分析 小波分析 新疆北部地区 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]