H7N9禽流感发病率主要影响因素的探究  

The Key Factors on the Incidence of H7N9 Subtype Avian Influenza Virus

作　　者：赵吴琼 李小玲 杨丽[1] 李凡 韩非儿 唐三一[1] ZHAO Wu-qiong;LI Xiao-ling;YANG Li;LI Fan;HAN Fei-er;TANG San-yi(School of Mathematics and Information Science,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi＇an 710119,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学数学与信息科学学院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2018年第18期188-200,共13页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目资助(201710718028)

摘　　要：针对甲型H7N9禽流感发病率的主要影响因素，从时空、环境和易感人群的性别年龄特征三个方面进行分析，得出其高发期为冬春两季、爆发中心为沿海地区、主要易感人群为中老年男性群体的结论．其次，根据历史统计数据建立时间序列模型，对2017年10月至2018年9月每周全国发病人数进行合理预测．最后，通过分析2014-2017年HTN9禽流感治愈率的变化情况，给出关于治疗H7N9禽流感的可行性方案及相关防治建议．This paper focuses on the major factors which influence on the incidence of H7N9 Subtype Avian Influenza Virus, such as spatial-temporal effects, environment factors and the age and gender characteristics of susceptible population. In combination of weekly reported cases and stochastic analyses, some interesting results related to H7N9 control have been proposed. In particular, the main results indicate that the reported cases and outbreak of H7N9 are seasonal, i.e. winter and spring are most serious seasons. Moreover, the center of the outbreak regions is coastal areas, and the main susceptible population is middle and old aged groups. Further, by building a time series model the number of weekly reported cases and death cases in China can be predicted from October 2017 to September 2018 based on historical statistic data. Finally, we discuss some possible treatments and control strategies with aims to mitigating H7N9 outbreak in the near future by analyzing its cure rate ranged from 2014 to 2017.

关 键 词：甲型H7N9禽流感 ARIMA模型 易感人群 统计分析 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]