基于灰色马尔科夫预测的PPP项目特许期调整模型研究  

Research on Adjustment Model of PPP Project Concession Period Based on Grey Markov Forecast

作　　者：马国丰[1] 周乔乔 Ma Guofeng;Zhou Qiaoqiao(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2018年第17期224-232,共9页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于项目多不确定性的关键设计结构矩阵研究"(71671128)

摘　　要：针对已投入运营的污水处理PPP项目,构建基于对未来现金流分析的特许期长度调整模型。为确定项目未来现金流中关键因素污水处理量的取值,采用灰色预测模型进行预测,并使用经过修改的马尔科夫模型对预测结果进行修正,进而与净现值特许期决策模型结合,计算得出建议调整的特许期长度。基于对某污水处理厂的实证研究表明,当污水处理PPP项目的实际污水处理量出现明显偏差时,本文建立的特许期调整模型能够克服概率统计依据历史经验而产生的不足,根据实际污水处理量变化提出合理的特许期变更建议。In this paper, a concession period adjustment model based on the analysis of future cash flow is constructed for a kind of PPP（Public-Private-Partnership project）, WWTPs（waste water treatment plant）, that have been put into operation. In order to determine the value of the waste water treatment capacity which is one of the key factors in the project future cash flow, the paper uses the grey forecasting model to predict it, and uses a modified Markov model to amend the forecasting result. Then with the net present value concession decision model, the paper calculates and proposes adjustment to the length of the concessionaire. Based on the empirical study of a WWTP, it shows that when the actual waste water treatment capacity of the WWTP is obviously different from the expected value, the model of the adjustment period established in this paper can overcome the deficiencies of probability statistics which based on historical experience and be combined with the actual data after operation and obtain a more reasonable concession period.

关 键 词：PPP 特许期调整模型 灰色马尔科夫预测 污水处理量 

分 类 号：F271[经济管理—企业管理] F272[经济管理—国民经济]