2013—2015年济南市大气重点污染物对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险的急性效应分析  

Acute effects of major air pollutants on respiratory disease mortality in Ji'nan during 2013-2015

作　　者：崔亮亮[1] 张军[2] 吴兴彬 周林[2] 韩连宇 岳克三 刘守钦[4] CUI Liang-liang;ZHANG Jun;WU Xing-bin;ZHOU Lin;HAN Lian-yu;YUE Ke-san;LIU Shou-qin(Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, ji＇nan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ji＇nan, Shandong 250021, China)

机构地区：[1]济南市疾病预防控制中心环境与职业卫生所,山东250021 [2]济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病控制所 [3]济南市历城区疾病预防控制中心公共卫生科 [4]济南市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2018年第5期425-429,F0003,共6页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目(2015WS0435)

摘　　要：目的评估济南市大气重点污染物(PM_(2.5)、SO2和NO2)对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的急性影响。方法收集2013—2015年济南市逐日气象资料、空气污染物浓度和居民呼吸系统疾病死亡资料,并进行描述性分析。采用基于QuasiPoisson回归的广义线性模型(GLM),控制时间的长期趋势和季节趋势、气象因素、星期几效应、节假日效应、集中供暖效应后,分别进行PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2与逐日居民呼吸系统疾病死亡数的单污染物模型分析、滞后效应(lag1~lag3)和累积滞后效应(lag0~1)分析,计算污染物浓度每升高10μg/m^3时的呼吸系统疾病死亡数增加的超额危险度(ER)及95%CI。结果2013—2015年济南市逐日PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2及居民呼吸系统疾病死亡数呈现一致的周期性、季节性特征,3种污染物年均值依次为95、73、55μg/m3,呼吸系统疾病日均死亡数为8人。污染物浓度每升高10μg/m3,PM_(2.5)(lag1)、SO_2(lag0)、NO_2(lag0)可使居民呼吸系统疾病死亡数分别增加0.52%(95%CI:0.09%~0.96%),0.73%(95%CI:0.13%~1.33%),1.67%(95%CI:0.19%~3.17%)。性别分层分析发现,3种污染物对女性的死亡风险均有统计学意义(P<0.05),而对男性未见统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论济南市大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2)均对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡效应存在急性影响,且女性更为敏感。Objective To assess the acute effects of air pollutants（PM（2.5）, SO2 and NO2） on the respiratory disease mortality in Ji＇nan. Methods Daily meteorological data, air pollutants levels and health data between 2013 and 2015 were collected for a descriptive analysis. The generalized linear model（GLM） based on Quasi-Poisson regression was used for estimating the acute effects of each pollutant on respiratory disease mortality. The confounding factors of long-term trend, seasonal trends,meteorological factors, week effect, holiday effect and central heating effect were controlled in the model. The lag pattern of lag days（lag1-lag3） and moving average effect（lag0-1） were conducted. The excessive risk（ER） of respiratory disease mortality with 95% confidence interval（95% CI） was calculated with an increase of 10 μg/m^3 of PM（2.5）, SO2 and NO2 respectively.Results Seasonality was showed in the daily pollutants and respiratory disease mortality from 2013 and 2015 in Ji ＇nan. The average of annual PM（2.5）, SO2 and NO2 concentration were 95 μg/m^3, 73 μg/m^3 and 55 μg/m^3 repectively. The average number of daily respiratory disease death was eight persons. With an increase of 10 μg/m^3 of PM（2.5）, SO2 and NO2, the respiratory disease mortality increased by 0.52%（95% CI： 0.09%-0.96%）,0.73%（95% CI： 0.13%-1.33%） and 1.67%（95% CI： 0.19%-3.17%）respectively. The same effect was observed both in males and females, but only in the females with significant difference.Conclusion The main air pollutants, PM（2.5）, SO2 and NO2, have significant acute effects on respiratory disease mortality in Ji ＇nan, especially for the female residents.

关 键 词：大气污染 呼吸系统疾病 死亡 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]