长期风电负荷预测方法比较  

Comparison of Prediction Methods for Long-term Wind Power Load

作　　者：靳春旭[1] 董福贵[1] JIN Chunxu;DONG Fugui(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《广东电力》2018年第9期70-76,共7页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(15YJA630011)

摘　　要：我国在长期风电负荷预测领域的研究处于初期水平,尚未有行之有效的预测方法,另一方面,长期风电负荷预测在风电并网、风电定价以及风电厂选址等领域起到十分重要的作用。为此,首先研究总结国内外关于风电负荷预测的成果,结合我国实际情况研究分析了我国在风电领域的利用现状以及弃风率居高不下的原因;其次,分析灰色预测理论和时间序列预测理论的模型与应用范围,以M省历年风电发电量作为算例,比较灰色预测理论预测结果与时间序列模型预测结果;最后,通过比较两种方法的预测误差,研究二者在长期风电负荷预测中的应用效果以及造成二者预测结果与应用范围不同的原因。结果表明,由于预测原理的不同和数据特征所造成的差异,在年度预测方面,灰色预测模型预测精度更高;在月度预测方面,时间序列模型精度更高。Research on long-term wind power load prediction in our country is in an initial stage level and there are no feasible and effective prediction methods yet. In addition, prediction on long-term wind power load plays important roles in wind power grid-connection, wind power pricing, site selection for wind power plants, and so on. Therefore, this paper firstly studies and summarizes achievements about wind power load prediction at home and abroad, and analyzes utilization situation of wind power in our country and reasons for high wind abandoning rate based on actual conditions of our country. Secondly it analyzes models of grey prediction theory and time series prediction theory and their application ranges. Taking wind power generating capacity over the years of province M for the example, it compares predicting results of these two models. Finally, by comparing prediction errors of the two methods, it studies application effects of these two methods in long-term wind power load prediction and reasons for causing different predicting results and application ranges. Corresponding results indicate due to differences of prediction theories and data characteristics, prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model is higher in annual prediction, while in monthly prediction, accuracy of the time series model is higher.

关 键 词：风电负荷预测 灰色预测理论 时间序列模型 比较研究 风电规划 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]