我国居民鸡蛋消费需求与未来趋势  

Demand and Trend of Chinese Residents′ Egg Consumption

作　　者：李莎莎[1] 李先德[1] LI Shasha;LI Xiande(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国家禽》2018年第17期1-7,共7页China Poultry

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程(CAAS-ASTIP-IAED-2018-06);现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-40-K28);福建省科技计划项目-省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项(2015R1016-8)

摘　　要：利用1982～2017年《中国统计年鉴》禽蛋产量和人口总量,参考居民的膳食营养需求以及发达国家(地区)居民的人均年鸡蛋消费量的变化历程,运用逻辑斯蒂增长模型,对我国居民人均年鸡蛋消费量的变化趋势、峰值以及出现的大致时间进行定量预测。结果表明:我国居民年人均鸡蛋消费量保持增长但存在"天花板";人均鸡蛋消费量将在2035年左右趋于22.7185 kg/年。在保证居民鸡蛋消费需求的同时,应增强蛋鸡养殖户安全生产意识,提升鸡蛋品质。This paper used egg production and total population of China Statistical Yearbook from 1982 to 2017, based on the residents＇ dietary nutrition needs and change course of annual egg consumption per capita in developed countries, the logistic growth model was adopted to quantitatively predict the variation tendency, peak and approximate time in China. The results showed that annual egg consumption of Chinese inhabitant remains increasing but there was a ＂ceiling＂; Per capita egg consumption would approach 22.7185 kg/year around 2035. While ensuring the residents＇ egg consumption demand, we should enhance the awareness of safe production and improve egg quality.

关 键 词：鸡蛋消费 需求 预测 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]