基于假设抽取法的重庆市工业隐含碳关联研究  

Measuring Carbon Linkages with the Hypothetical Extraction Method: An Application to the Chongqing Industrial Sectors

作　　者：魏庆琦 肖伟[1] WEI Qingqi1,2, XIAO Wei1(1.School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China; 2. School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu Sichuan 610054, China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆400074 [2]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,四川成都610054

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第10期29-34,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“基于有限理性出行行为引导下的城市低碳交通体系治理研究”(13CGL151);重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究项目“基于碳排放资源效率分析的重庆市工业结构优化路径与对策研究”(KJ1705128);国家自然科学基金“基于负效应极小化目标的大城市交通能源供应网络系统优化与管理”(71471024);重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目“小额信贷机构风险分担机制的逆向选择研究。(16SKGH070)

摘　　要：为深入理解重庆工业碳排放状况,有必要对其隐含碳关联进行测算与分析。文章基于假设抽取法设计了8个隐含碳关联指数。并利用该方法分别测算了重庆市22个工业部门隐含碳关联。在此基础上,依据提出的8个指数对重庆市工业行业进行了分类和关键行业识别。研究表明,重庆工业绝对碳排放和隐含碳排放排名存在显著差异,工业隐含碳循环关键行业为发电与供热、金属冶炼和化工业。交通运输设备制造业是唯一的隐含碳依赖行业,隐含碳输出最严重的行业则是煤矿开采、通用与专用设备制造业和其他制造业。建议在保障区域生产连续性的基础上对隐含碳输出行业进行监管,并增加隐含碳依赖型企业区域外采购的比例。In order to identify the driving forces underlying the development of modern industry in Chongqing, it is important to measure the embodied carbon linkages among local industrial sectors. Based on the hypothetical extraction method （HEM）, we developed 8 indexes to identify the direction of embodied carbon flow. Then, HEM and 8 indexes are adopted to measure the embodied carbon linkages among industrial sectors in Chongqing. In accordance with the results from the empirical study, all the 22 sectors are classified into 4 groups, and key sectors of embodied carbon flow are recognized. The result shows that key sectors of embodied carbon circulation are three sectors： Electricity and hot water production and supply, Metallurgy and Chemical industry. Transport equipment is the biggest embodied carbon dependent sector. And coal mining, general and specialist machinery and other manufacturing are three biggest embodied carbon export sectors. Policy implications on low- carbon industrial development in Chongqing deduced from this empirical research are discussed.

关 键 词：环境经济 假设抽取法 隐含碳指数 隐含碳循环 低碳经济 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]