江苏省机场与区域经济发展的关联性分析  

Study on correlation between airports and regional economy development of Jiangsu province

作　　者：张杨茗媛 白杨[1] ZHANG Yang-ming-yuan;BAI Yang(School of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第5期611-618,共8页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：南京航空航天大学青年科技创新基金(理工类)(NS2015065)

摘　　要：以江苏省机场为研究对象,统计2008～2015年七个机场(除淮安机场、扬泰机场)的季度旅客吞吐量及该地区的国民生产总值,分析两变量之间协整及格兰杰因果关系,通过脉冲响应和方差分解分析两者之间影响强度的大小.研究发现,江苏省7个机场旅客吞吐量和区域经济增长之间互为格兰杰因果关系.脉冲响应分析结果显示吞吐量对经济增长变化的响应为正,经济增长对吞吐量变化的响应亦是如此,而且经济增长对吞吐量变化更为敏感.方差分解结果显示机场吞吐量对经济增长预测误差的贡献度较大.说明江苏省机场对区域经济有明显的拉动作用.从量化的角度对机场和区域经济关联性进行分析,为地方政府制定民航发展政策提供参考.By taking airports in Jiangsu Province as the research object, this paper made statistics towards the quarterly passenger throughput and GDP of seven airports from 2008 to 2015, analyzed the co-integration and Granger causality between two variables. By analyzing impulse response and variance decomposition of the two variables, the magnitude of the impact strength between them was obtained. It was discovered that there was bidirectional Granger causality between passenger throughput and GDP. The impulse response analysis showed that the response of throughput to the change of economic growth was positive and the reverse was the same. The variance decomposition analysis showed that the contribution of passenger throughput to the prediction error of economic growth was greater. Therefore it can be considered that airports in Jiangsu Province have obviously stimulated the regional economy. This paper quantitatively analyzed the relationship between airports and regional economy, it will be useful for the local government to make policies of regional aviation development.

关 键 词：机场 区域经济 协整 格兰杰因果关系 脉冲响应 方差分解 

分 类 号：F560[经济管理—产业经济]