基于混沌理论的企业动态能力、投资和收益的非线性关系  

Nonlinear Relationship Between Enterprise Dynamic Capabilities, Investment,and Warnings Based on Chaos Theory

作　　者：盛永祥[1] 王旭娜[1] 吴洁[1] SHENG Yongxiang;WANG Xuna;WU Jie(School of Economics and Management,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212003,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学经济管理学院,江苏镇江212003

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2018年第5期950-960,共11页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271119;71273121);国家社会科学基金资助项目(14AGL001);教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(14YJA880061;13YJC880098);江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2015JDXM025)

摘　　要：动态能力的提升是促进企业稳步发展,给企业带来独特竞争优势的重要手段。分析了动态能力、投资和收益之间的相互关系,构建了动态能力和投资对收益影响的非线性行为方程。借助李雅普诺夫指数分析了系统的动力学行为,得到了动态能力约束下的投资收益吸引子和系统在不同情形下的动态演化图。结合联想集团有限公司的财务数据和调查数据,借助非线性最小二乘回归法,得到联想公司实际系统的参数,分析了联想集团有限公司动态能力、投资和收益之间的一系列演化行为。研究结果表明:快速提升动态能力短期内企业收益不会显著增加,但是后期会对企业收益增长带来巨大贡献;投资发展速度过快会造成企业收益波动幅度较大;投资增加并不必然导致收益增加,投资水平要综合考虑现阶段的动态能力水平。The improvement of dynamic capabilities is an important means to promote the steady development of enterprises and bring unique competitive advantages to enterprises. This paper analyzes the relationship between the dynamic capability, investment and income, and constructs a nonlinear behavioral equation of the impact of the dynamic capability and investment on income. With the help of Lyapunov index, it analyzes the dynamic behavior of the system, and obtains an attractor of investment and return which is restricted by the dynamic capability and the dynamic evolution graph of the system in different situations. Combining the financial data and survey data of Lenovo Group Co., Ltd., and with the help of the nonlinear least-squares regression method, it obtains the parameters of the actual system of the Lenovo, and analyzes a series of evolutionary behaviors about Lenovo＇s dynamic capabilities, investments and incomes. The results show that a rapid improvement of the dynamic capability will not significantly increase their earning in a short time, but it will have a significant contribution to the growth of corporate earnings later. A too fast an investment development will result in a great fluctuation in the enterprise income. The increase in investment does not necessarily lead to an increase in income, and an enterprise should consider its current dynamic capability so far as its investment is concerned.

关 键 词：企业动态能力 投资 收益 非线性 混沌 

分 类 号：N945.16[自然科学总论—系统科学]