1951—2016年武汉市极端气温指数特征  

Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Index in Wuhan during 1951 to 2016

作　　者：毛以伟[1] 陈正洪 陈茜[1] 谢萍[1] MAO Yiwei;CHEN Zhenghong;CHEN Xi;XIE Ping(Wuhan Center Meteorological Observatory,Wuhan 430074,China;Hubei Meteorological Service Center,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉中心气象台,湖北武汉430074 [2]湖北省气象服务中心,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2018年第5期75-82,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：湖北省气象局科技发展基金(2017Y01)资助

摘　　要：采用武汉、重庆、福州、杭州、南昌、长沙、南京和合肥8个城市1951—2016年最高和最低气温资料,运用多项式拟合、线性拟合、Morlet小波变换、Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析方法,讨论了武汉市极端气温指数时间变化特征。结果表明:(1)武汉市年极端最高气温、高温日数、热夜日数表现出阶段性上升和下降趋势,整体呈上升趋势,增率分别为0.1℃/10 a、0.53 d/10 a、2.1 d/10 a。近11 a在全球变暖大环境下,反呈下降或减少趋势。(2)极端最高气温在1986年、高温日数在1957年和1997年、热夜日数在1990年出现了突变,由前期下降趋势突变为整体上升趋势。极端最高气温均值突变后上升了0.4℃,而高温日数两次突变后均值分别增多61%和54%,热夜日数突变后均值增多78%。(3)极端高温存在5～6 a、8～9 a和10～11 a周期变化。高温日数存在6 a、8～9 a和15～16 a的周期变化。热夜日数存在11 a、14 a和23～24 a的周期变化。(4)武汉市年极端最高气温、高温日数、热夜日数虽然近11 a为下降或递减趋势,R/S分析显示未来仍很可能出现上升或递增的趋势。(5)武汉与重庆、福州、杭州、南昌、长沙、南京、合肥比较分析显示,极端最高气温、年高温日数、年热夜日数3类指数整体综合排名武汉为第7位,其炎热程度在8城市中居后,武汉退出了"四大火炉"城市的行列。Based on the daily maximum and minimum air temperature data from eight cities （Wuhan, Chongqing, Fuzhou, Hangzhou, Nanehang, Changsha, Nanjing, Hefei）, the temporal variation of extreme air temperature is discussed by use of Polynomial fitting, Linear fitting, Mann-Kendall test , Morletwavelet analysis and R/S analysis. The results are as follows： （1）The extreme high temperature, high temperature days and hot nights showed the trend of phased rise or downward. On the whole they were increased at the speed of 0.1 -C/10 a,0.53 d/10 a and 2.1 d/10 a , respectively. But in the past 11 years, under the trend of global warming, they presented downtrend. （2）The extreme maximum temperature abrupt changed in 1986, the high temperature days abrupt changed in 1957 and 1997, and the hot nights abrupt changed in 1990, all of which changed from the previous downward trend to the overall upward trend. After the mutation, the mean maximum temperature increased by 0.4℃, the mean days of high temperature increased by 61% and 54%, respectively, and the hot nights increased by 78%.（3）The extreme high temperature had several oscillating period sueh as 5-6 years,8-9 years and 10-11 years, the high temperature days had 6,8-9 years and 15-16 years oscillation periods, and hot night days had 11 years, 14 years and 23-24 years oscillation periods. （4）The extreme high temperature, high temperature days and hot night in Wuhan decreased in the recent 11 years. However,IllS analysis indicated that the rising trend in the future is still likely to occur.（5） Compared to Chongqing, Fuzhou, Hangzhou, Nanehang, Nanjing, Hefei and Changsha, the comprehensive rank on three indexes in Wuhan was seventh, and the degree of Wuhan＇s hot weather ranked behind in all of the eight cities, so Wuhan was out of the ＂four furnaces city＂.

关 键 词：武汉 极端气温指数 气温变化 突变 周期 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学] P423.3[农业科学—农业基础科学]