基于混沌理论的高炉一氧化碳利用率的预测研究  

Research on forecast of carbon-monoxide utilization ratio in the blast furnace based on chaos theory

作　　者：肖登峰[1] 安剑奇 吴敏 何勇 Xiao Dengfeng;An Jianqi;Wu Min;He Yong(School of Information and Electrical Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,Hunan China;School of Automation,China University ofGeosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学信息学院,湖南湘潭411201 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)自动化学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第9期77-81,100,共6页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61333002,61203017);国家高技术研究发展计划资助项目(2012AA040307);湖北自然科学基金资助项目(2015CFA010);中国地质大学基础研究项目(2015349120)

摘　　要：以一氧化碳利用率为能耗评估指标,在高炉一氧化碳利用率混沌特性的基础上,提出了一种基于混沌理论高炉一氧化碳利用率的预测方法.首先以两座具有代表性的中高型高炉的一氧化碳利用率时序为样本,采用混沌相空间重构技术,对其进行相空间重构.其次利用自相关方法和G-P方法计算其重构空间的参数（时滞时间和嵌入维数）.最后基于已获的混沌重构相空间参数,采用混沌加权一阶多步预测方法,建立高炉一氧化碳利用率的混沌预测模型,对其进行多步预测.现场实际数据的预测结果表明了所提出方法的有效性和预测模型的精准性.Carbon-monxide utilization ratio（CMUR） was serviced as an index energy consumption and a chaotic prediction method was presented to forecast the variation tendency of CMUR based on the chaotic characteristic.Firstly,CMUR time series sample data were acquired from two representative blast furnaces（BFs） as the sample,and the phase space of CMUR could be reconstructed based on the phase space reconstruction technology.Then,the two key parameters（the lag-time and the embedded dimension） in the CMUR＇s reconstructed phase space could be obtained via the autocorrelation function method and G-P algorithm.Finally,according to the obtained parameters,the chaotic predicted model could be established by employing the chaotic adding weight one-rank local-region method,which could multistep forecast the CMUR of BF.The simulation results show that the chaotic prediction model has high precision rate.

关 键 词：高炉 相空间重构 嵌入维数 时滞时间 混沌预测 

分 类 号：TP319.56[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]