基于GISIS数据库的客滚船碰撞事故致因分析  

Analysis of Ropax Collision Based on GISIS Database

作　　者：李若皙 唐文勇[1] 张道坤[2] LI Ruo-xi;TANG Wen-yong;ZHANG Dao-kun(State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;Technology Research ＆ Development Center,China Classification Society,Beijing 100007,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室,上海200240 [2]中国船级社北京研发中心,北京100007

出　　处：《船舶与海洋工程》2018年第5期71-76,共6页Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering

基　　金：工信部高技术船舶科研项目(工信部联装[2016]26号)

摘　　要：以国际海事组织(International Maritime Organization,IMO)全球综合航运信息系统(Global Integrated Shipping Information System,GISIS)数据库资料为基础,分析2003—2017年的海上船舶事故发生情况。针对欧盟提交给IMO的客滚船破损稳性参数综合安全评估项目(EMSA项目)报告中存在的前提假设合理性不足和没有事故致因分析等问题,提出改进分析方法。根据GISIS数据库中的事故数据报告,分析客滚船碰撞事故发生原因;以此为基本事件,采用故障树方法建立客滚船碰撞事故致因分析模型。通过计算最小割集和开展敏感性分析,衡量各危险事故场景对导致最终碰撞事故发生的重要度,得到危险事故场景序列并初步给出风险控制措施,为降低客滚船潜在的碰撞事故发生风险提供参考。Marine accidents from 2003 to 2017 are analyzed based on the Global Integrated Shipping Information System （GISIS） of the International Maritime Organization （IMO）, and an improved analysis method is proposed to solve the problems of lack of reasonable premise and lack of accident cause analysis for the report of formal safety assessment （EMSA project） submitted by the European Union to IMO concerning the Ropax damage stability. The causes for Ropax collision are analyzed according to the accident data report in the GISIS database, which is treated as the basic incident to establish a Ropax collision cause analysis model with the fault tree method. This study calculated the minimum cut set, carried out the sensitivity analysis, and measured the importance of various dangerous scenarios that may cause collision, then obtained the sequence of dangerous scenes and proposed the measures to control risk, which provides references for reducing the potential collision risk of Ropax ships.

关 键 词：综合安全评估 故障树 船舶碰撞事故 GISIS数据库 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]