四川省雅安市公路洪灾风险评估研究  

Risk Assessment of Road Flood in Ya'an City,Sichuan Province

作　　者：唐红梅[1] 廖学海[1,2] 杨刚 林尤跃 刘虎队 TANG Hong-mei;LIAO Xue-hai;YANG Gang;LIN You-yue;LIU Hu-dui(Institute of Geotechnical Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Nanjiang Hydro-Geological ＆ Engineering Geology Brigade,Chongqing 401121,China;College of Civil Engineering ＆ Architecture,China Three Gorges University,Yichang,Hubei 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学岩土工程研究所,重庆400074 [2]重庆市地质矿产勘查开发局南江水文地质工程地质队,重庆401121 [3]三峡大学土木与建筑学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第10期120-126,共7页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071017);四川省交通厅科技项目(glkj201227);2013年重庆高校创新团队建设计划资助项目(KJTD201305)

摘　　要：为评价公路洪灾的风险性,以雅安市为研究对象,基于公路洪灾致灾机理、破坏形态,综合考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和灾情因子四方面因素,遴选出公路造价等11个指标构建公路洪灾风险评估指标体系.利用层次分析法、模糊概率理论建立公路洪灾风险评估模型,对雅安市公路洪灾风险进行区划.区划结果表明:雅安市公路洪灾风险性被分为高中风险亚区、中高风险亚区和中低风险亚区、低风险区四档三级.经济发达的雨城区的公路洪灾风险性较高,名山及西南部区县次之,宝兴、芦山的公路洪灾风险性较小;分区结果与近三年公路洪灾损失结果相符,评价结果有一定的科学性和参考价值.Road floods have happened frequently in the past few years and caused great losses in the economy of Sichuan province.To assess the risk of road floods,a study was made with Ya＇an as the study area.Based on failure mechanisms and forms of road floods,and taking into consideration flood-causing factors,flood-developing environment,hazard-affected bodies and flooding factors,an index system of risk assessment for road flooding was constructed,which consisted of 11 relevant and pertinent indicators.Using the AHP-entrophy method and the theory of fuzzy probability,a risk assessment model was built and a map of risk of road floods in Ya＇an city was drawn.The results of road flood hazard zoning divided Ya＇an into a high-medium-risk area,a medium-high-risk area,a medium-low-risk area and a low-risk area.Of the four areas,Yucheng district,the central urban area of Ya＇an with a well developed economy,was shown to have the highest road flood risk,followed in sequence by Mingshan,Baoxing and Lushan.These results were consistent with the actual losses of road floods in the past 3 years.

关 键 词：道路工程 公路洪灾 风险评估 层次分析法 模糊概率 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]