甘肃省生态安全预警研究  

Ecological Security Early Warning of Gansu Province

作　　者：刘冉芝 石惠春[1] 李鲁华 Liu Ranzhi;Shi Huichun;Li Luhua(College of Geography and Environmental Science of Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 73007)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2018年第24期110-116,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"跨寒旱区内陆河流域生态经济功能区划及健康评价"(41161022);甘肃省科技支撑计划项目"石羊河流域生态经济功能区研究"(090NKCA075)

摘　　要：研究旨在分析甘肃省2005—2015年的生态安全状况并预测其发展趋势,以期为改善甘肃省生态环境提供理论指导与借鉴。基于驱动力-压力-状态-响应(DPSR)模型,构建出甘肃省生态安全预警评价指标体系,并运用熵值法对其2005—2015年的生态安全进行预警分析,最后运用灰色系统的GM(1,1)预测模型预测2018—2022年的生态安全变化趋势。研究表明:2005—2015年甘肃省生态安全指数从0.4103增加到0.5967,呈波动上升趋势,生态安全等级从Ⅲ级到Ⅱ级再到Ⅲ级,呈现"U"型态势,说明甘肃省生态环境在经历了恶化之后得到了一定程度的改善;灰色预测分析得出2018—2022年生态安全指数分别为0.6344、0.6592、0.6859、0.7148、0.7458,表明甘肃省生态安全状况将保持向好的趋势。The purpose is to analyze the situation of ecological security in Gansu from 2005 to 2015 and predict its development trend, thus to provide reference for improving the ecological environment situation.Based on the driving force-pressure-state-response（DPSR） model, an evaluation index system of ecologicalsecurity early warning of Gansu was established. Then, entropy method was used to analyze the ecologicalsecurity situation from 2005 to 2015. Finally, the evolution trend of ecological security from 2018 to 2022 waspredicted by grey GM（1,1） model. The results indicated that： the ecological security index of Gansu increasedfrom 0.4103 to 0.5967 from 2005 to 2015 with a fluctuating increase trend, and the ecological security levelwas from Grade III to Grade II, and then turn to grade III, showing a＂U＂type trend, which indicated that theecological environment of Gansu was improved to some extent after experiencing a deterioration. According tothe results of the grey GM（1,1） model, the ecological safety index of 2018 to 2022 was 0.6344, 0.6592, 0.6859,0.7148 and 0.7458, respectively, indicating that the ecological security situation in Gansu maintains a good momentum.

关 键 词：生态安全预警 D-P-S-R模型 GM(1 1)模型 甘肃省 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]