湖南省灰水足迹变化特征及其驱动因子分析  

An Analysis of the Variations and Driving Factors of Grey Water Footprint in Hunan Province

作　　者：贺志文 向平安[1,2] HE Zhi-wen;XIANG Ping-an(Rural Ecosystem Health Laboratory of Hunan Dongting Lake Area,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China;College of Business,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学洞庭湖区农村生态系统健康湖南省重点实验室,长沙410128 [2]湖南农业大学商学院,长沙410128

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2018年第10期19-26,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(11BJY028);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD14B17)

摘　　要：核算了湖南省2001-2015年的农业、工业和生活灰水足迹,并采用扩展STIRPAT模型分析了其变化原因,以期为利用水资源和治理水污染提供合理建议。分析结果表明,湖南省灰水足迹由2001年的690.747亿m3下降到2015年的671.946亿m3,其中,农业灰水足迹占比最大,从49%缓慢上升至51%;工业灰水足迹占比最小,从23%下降至9%;生活灰水足迹占比从28%上升至40%。城镇化水平、第三产业占比、第二产业占比、人均GDP、灰水足迹强度和外商直接投资是灰水足迹的重要驱动因素,它们各自的影响系数分别为0.799 6、0.654 3、0.650 5、-0.814 8、-0.589 2和-0.511 5,表明前3个因子对灰水足迹具有促进作用,而后3个因子具有抑制作用。经济增长与灰水足迹之间存在倒"U"型环境库兹涅兹曲线关系,但不存在"污染天堂"现象。This paper calculates the grey water footprint of agriculture,industry,and life in Hunan Province from 2001 to 2015 and analyzes the causes of the changes by using the extended STIRPAT model,with a view to providing reasonable suggestions for the use of water resources and treatment of water pollution. The analysis results show that the grey water footprint of Hunan Province has decreased from 69.07 billion cubic meters in 2001 to 67.194 billion cubic meters in 2015,of which the proportion of agricultural grey water footprint is the largest,rising slowly from 49% to 51%. The proportion of industrial grey water footprint is the smallest,falling from 23% to 9%.That of grey water footprint in life has increased from 28% to 40%. The level of urbanization,the proportion of the tertiary industry,that of the secondary industry,the per capita GDP,the gray water footprint intensity,and foreign direct investment are the important drivers of the gray water footprint. Their impact coefficients are 0.799 6,0.654 3,0.650 5,-0.814 8,-0.589 2,and-0.511 5 respectively. It shows that the first3 factors have a promoting effect on the gray water footprint,while the other 3 factors have an inhibitory effect. There is an inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and grey water footprint, but there is no ＂pollution paradise ＂phenomenon.

关 键 词：灰水足迹 农业 工业 生活 驱动因子 湖南省 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]