地下水模型参数不确定性对晋祠泉流量预测的影响  

Influence of Uncertainty of Groundwater Model Parameters on Flow Prediction of Jinci Spring

作　　者：彭伏 常勇[1] 郑秀清[2] 吴吉春[1] PENG Fu;CHANG Yong;ZHENG Xiu-qing;WU Ji-chun(School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210046,China;College of Hydroscience and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学地球科学与工程学院,江苏南京210046 [2]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2018年第10期53-57,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1503282;41602242);国家重点研发计划(2016YFC040280901)

摘　　要：鉴于地下水数值模拟模型预测结果受参数不确定性的影响较大,故以晋祠泉域岩溶地下水系统为例,在建立研究区地下水流数值模型的基础上,选择研究区水文地质参数为代表参数,利用GLUE方法进行初步敏感性分析得出对晋祠泉流量预测最敏感的参数为渗透系数,并筛选出167组较优渗透系数组合,再通过其与不同气象和压采条件下的六个方案的结合进行模拟预测,从而定量分析渗透系数的不确定性对晋祠泉流量预测的影响。结果表明,整体上模型参数的不确定性对泉流量预测产生了较大影响,在开采量大且补给量较小的条件下影响最大,在压采且补给量大的条件下影响最小,但仅压采或仅补源并非加快晋祠泉复流的有效措施。The prediction results of groundwater numerical simulation model may be greatly influenced by parameter uncertainty.In this paper,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the prediction results of Jinci spring was discussed.Based on the groundwater flow model of Jinci spring area,the GLUE method was used to screen out the sensitive hydrological parameters in the model and finally find 167 relatively optimal groups of parameters.And then,these optimal groups of parameters were used to calculate the discharge of Jinci spring under different rainfall and exploitation conditions and analyze the influence of parameter uncertainty on the prediction results.The results show that the uncertainties of the model parameters have a great influence on the prediction results.The influence is obvious when the exploitation is large or precipitation is small.On the contrary,the influence is limited with little exploitation and large precipitation.Besides,the result also indicates that only decreasing the exploitation or only increasing the recharge is not an effective way to accelerate the reflow of the Jinci spring.

关 键 词：岩溶 晋祠泉域 GLUE MODFLOW 不确定性 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]